Ripon

The best career win rate in the entire field — winning roughly 1 in every 4 races over 61 outings — but that headline number feels misleading right now given her recent form. She has finished 15th, 7th, 10th, 11th and 11th in her last five races, a sequence so poor it's hard to explain away. She has won over this course and distance, but until she shows something in her current races, that past record feels like a distant memory.

Back after seven months off the track — the longest absence of any horse in this field — which is a significant question mark heading into a competitive sprint. His best form has come on fast, dry ground, where he wins roughly 1 in 4 races, but today's normal conditions are actually where he struggles most, with no wins from three attempts on this type of surface. Hard to trust on return from such a long break.

Rated 10 pounds below the field average — the second-lowest in the race — and his recent form reads 12th, 10th and 9th, so there is very little to recommend him here on paper. He has never won on a left-handed, galloping track in 13 attempts, and Ripon fits exactly that profile. His standout marker flags that he placed in two of his last three races, but looking at the actual finishes, those were ninth and tenth — nowhere near the places.

Carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 14 pounds below the average, which gives him a theoretical advantage in a handicap — he needs less to do to be competitive. All five of his career wins have come on the artificial surface at tracks like Southwell and Kempton, and he has never won on normal turf conditions in five attempts. Stepping onto a turf track at Ripon on normal ground asks him to do something his record suggests he simply cannot do.