Ripon

A horse that has shown glimpses of promise — a third place at Bath three weeks ago is her best effort from four races — but like Masaban, she has never raced on normal ground before today. She carries the second-highest weight in the field and sits in the widest draw, which at this course and distance is a slight disadvantage. Four races in with one place to show for it, she needs to find improvement to trouble the leaders here.

This horse has been off the track for 236 days — the longest absence of any runner here — and returns with a record of four races, zero wins, and zero places, with every finish coming deep in the field. She is also the joint-lowest rated horse in the race, sitting 8 points below the field average, so she faces a stiff task even before accounting for the long break. Neither her trainer nor jockey has won in the past two weeks, and their partnership has yet to produce a single victory together.

The lightest weight in the field gives her an advantage on paper, but the form makes it very hard to be enthusiastic — she has finished 12th, 11th, and 10th in her last three races, beaten 20 lengths or more on two of those occasions. Neither her jockey nor her trainer has recorded a win in the past two weeks, and together they have managed just one win from 34 races. It is difficult to find a reason to fancy her chances against rivals who, while modest, have at least shown more.