Punchestown

The best career win rate in the entire field — winning 2 of his 5 career races, roughly 1 in every 2 — and he was third at Fairyhouse less than four weeks ago after winning at Leopardstown in February. He drops two levels of competition today, which looks like an advantage, though cheekpieces go on for the first time.

He has won four of his last six races, including back-to-back victories at Naas most recently, and has an extraordinary record on heavy and soft-to-heavy ground — winning 3 from 3 on soft-to-heavy. However, he has never won on standard soft ground in four attempts and has never won on a right-handed, galloping track, which is a notable contradiction to work through.

Among the more experienced horses in the field with 22 career races, but his recent form is deeply uninspiring — 12th at Aintree and 6th and 7th in his last three outings. His best ground is somewhere between soft and yielding, which is at least something, but he's drifted from 21s to 32s and gives little reason for confidence right now.

One of very few course winners in this field, Da Capo Glory has won here at Punchestown before and has a solid record in wet and muddy conditions — winning on soft, heavy, and soft-to-heavy ground. He was eighth at Cheltenham last time, which is modest, but his course form and comfort in these conditions make him more interesting than his 23/1 odds might suggest.

This horse finished a close second at Naas in February, beaten less than a length, which showed real ability — but he then finished 11th at Cheltenham and has never won on a left-handed, galloping track in six attempts. His best form has come on fast, dry ground, which is the opposite of what he faces here.

Dropping two levels of competition from his last race and stepping into a field of this quality on ground he has never encountered is a big ask. He's only raced five times in his career and has no form in wet or muddy conditions, so there are serious unknowns here. The market has drifted him from 11s to 20s, which tells its own story.

A horse that had won two in a row before being turned over at Cheltenham, and now drops two levels of class — which on paper looks positive. However, he has never raced on soft or muddy ground before, so today's conditions are a complete unknown for him, and the market has sent him out from 15s to 21s.

Interestingly, despite never having raced on soft ground before, his record actually shows two wins from six races labelled soft — so there may be a data quirk there worth noting. He was second in a decent race at Huntingdon before finishing 14th at Cheltenham, and drops two levels of class today. At 34s he's a big price, but the unknown ground question is genuine.

Five career wins from 23 races makes this one of the more successful horses in the field by that measure, and he was placed twice in the space of a week in April. The problem is he has never won on soft ground in six attempts, has never won on a left-handed, galloping track, and has just drifted from 15s to 19s.

His best form has come on fast, dry ground — winning 2 from 4 on good ground and 1 from 3 on good-to-yielding — but he has never won on soft ground and has never won on a right-handed, galloping track. He was 11th at Cheltenham and 7th at Aintree, and today's conditions look to work against what makes him tick.

The top-rated horse in the field by 10lbs, but that weight advantage on paper is working against him here — he carries 168lbs in wet, muddy conditions having never won on soft ground in three attempts. He pulled up at Aintree less than three weeks ago and has drifted badly in the market from 15s to 24s. At 11 years old and with his best form on fast, dry ground, this isn't the day to trust him.

Among the more experienced horses in the field with 19 career races, but he has never won on soft ground in three attempts and has never won on a left-handed, galloping track in seven tries — both of which are serious concerns given today's conditions and course layout. His best ground is good-to-yielding, which is the opposite of what he faces.

Two pulled-up performances in his last three races and a 17th-place finish at Naas paint a grim recent picture, and he has never won on soft ground in five attempts. He carries the joint-lowest weight in the field, but there's nothing in his current form to suggest that's enough of an advantage to matter.

A 50/1 outsider who has finished 9th, 9th, and 4th in his last three races, and has never won on soft-to-heavy ground in five attempts. There is little in his recent form to suggest he can trouble the better horses in a field of 26, and the market agrees.

The longest absentee in the field by some distance — he hasn't raced for 270 days — returning after winning at Galway last summer. Coming back after nine months off into a 26-runner listed race on a left-handed track he has never won on is a tough ask, and he's drifted to 50s for good reason.

Two wins in a row — at Navan and Fairyhouse — heading into this race, and a horse that genuinely seems to thrive in wet and muddy conditions, winning a third of his races on soft ground and a third on heavy. He was only fifth last time out at Wexford, but the back-to-back wins before that show he is in decent nick.

He finished 12th at Cheltenham last time out, beaten 34 lengths, and has never raced on soft or muddy ground in 15 career races — so today's wet conditions are an unknown he simply hasn't faced before. His best form has come on good-to-soft ground in Britain, and the market has drifted him to 50s.

The most experienced horse in the entire field with 29 career races — almost double the field average — and has won on soft ground before. However, he has never won at Punchestown in five attempts despite being a regular here, and his recent form shows a pull-up and a 10th-place finish in his last two outings.

He pulled up at Navan last time and was 11th at Naas before that, and has never raced on soft ground in 17 career races — a significant unknown given today's conditions. He carries the joint-lowest weight and has won 2 from 5 on heavy ground, but the market has pushed him all the way out to 55s after his recent form.

Returning from a break of nearly four months and drifting badly in the market from 41s all the way out to 75s — the longest price in the field. His best form has come on quicker ground, and with limited recent evidence and a long absence, this looks like a race where he's very much on the outside looking in.