Punchestown

The market favourite and the most consistent horse in the field right now, with three top-three finishes in a row including a recent win at this very course. He has raced here nine times and won three of them, which makes him the standout course specialist in this field. The one flag is that his record specifically on soft ground is poor — zero wins from four attempts — which is worth bearing in mind given today's wet conditions.

Crucially, this is the only horse in the field that has won over this exact course and distance — a fact that stands out in a race this long and unusual. He has also won twice here in five visits, giving him a genuine course record to point to. However, like the favourite, he has never won on soft ground in five attempts, and his odds have drifted on raceday suggesting the market is not convinced.

The most compelling ground angle in the field: three wins from just five runs on yielding ground gives this horse a 60% record when conditions are testing — better than any other runner here on comparable soft ground figures. It finished second at Punchestown just eight weeks ago and is trained by Gordon Elliott, whose yard rarely saddles horses without purpose. A distant tenth at Cheltenham last month is the one blemish, but it holds strong claims here.

Two wins from six races at Punchestown gives this horse a genuine course record, and its best form has come on heavy and very wet ground — so today's soft conditions are not a problem. The recent form is patchy though, with three poor runs including a pulled-up finish at Cheltenham, so it needs to bounce back sharply. At 13s it is not without interest if it returns to its best.