Nottingham

Carries the lowest weight in the field, which in a race like this is a genuine advantage — lighter horses are harder to catch when the race gets serious. The big unknown is that this horse has never raced on normal turf conditions before, so today is a step into the unknown despite a recent win at Newcastle.

This horse hasn't raced for 246 days — the longest absence in the field by some distance — and returning from that kind of break cold is always a risk. In its favour, jockey Jason Hart is the most in-form rider here, and Aspull showed plenty of promise in its first few outings before that long spell away.

At 8 years old, Helm Rock is the joint-oldest in the field and also the most experienced by a country mile — 51 races compared to a field average of 19. Three consecutive top-three finishes show he is bang in form right now, and his record on normal ground reads 2 wins from 8 attempts, which is solid.

One of only a small number of course winners in this field, having won here at Nottingham before — which matters. However, the recent form makes grim reading: beaten 15 and 17 lengths in its last two runs, so whatever sparked that Nottingham victory hasn't shown up for a long time.

One of the least experienced horses in the field with just 7 career races, and the recent form offers little encouragement — beaten 8 and 6 lengths in its last two outings. The data also shows zero wins from 6 races on left-handed galloping tracks, and Nottingham fits that description.

The least experienced horse in the field alongside Degale, with just 4 career races and no wins to its name yet. Returning from a 162-day absence makes this even more of an unknown quantity, though previous runs in Class 2 and Class 3 company show the trainer thinks there is ability here worth finding.

The editorial pick, and the standout form horse — three wins in a row is the best current sequence in the field, and a career win rate of 1 in 4 is the best here. The catch is that all three recent wins came on artificial surfaces, and the data shows he has never won on a right-handed galloping track like Nottingham in five attempts.

The best record in the field on today's ground — 2 wins from just 4 starts on normal turf — which is a meaningful edge if the ground is the key factor. However, this horse hasn't run for 184 days and was beaten over 11 lengths last time out, so there are question marks about whether it returns to its best here.