Killarney

The editorial verdict singles this horse out as the value pick, pointing to a Listed hurdle win at Galway last summer as evidence it can run to a higher level than its current rating suggests. However, the ground record is a genuine red flag — no wins from seven attempts on yielding or soft ground, and today it will race on slightly soft conditions for the first time at Killarney, a track where it has never won in five attempts. Trained by Gordon Elliott and second in the market, the class is clearly there, but the conditions are working against it.

One of only a handful of course winners in this field, which matters at a track like Killarney where familiarity counts. However, the record on soft or wet ground is a real concern — no wins from six attempts on anything softer than normal conditions, and today's slightly soft ground puts that weakness right in the spotlight. Finishing fourth last time out, beaten nearly five lengths, does not inspire confidence ahead of this step up in trip.

The most experienced horse in this field by a long way — 56 races compared to a field average of 25 — and has been in the frame more times than almost any rival. The problem is the ground: no wins from a combined 29 attempts on anything softer than yielding, and today's slightly soft conditions put it firmly outside its comfort zone. Finishing fourth at Punchestown just 10 days ago is at least a sign of life, but the ground record here is a real obstacle.

The standout stat here is that Harry's Legacy has already won over this exact course and distance — a rare distinction in this field — and also has the best record on slightly soft ground of any runner, winning 1 from 4 on this type of surface. A third-place finish at Gowran Park 34 days ago suggests it is in reasonable shape. The worry is a poor record on right-handed galloping tracks with no wins from six attempts, and Killarney is a right-handed track, which complicates an otherwise compelling profile.