Killarney

Despite being one of the shorter prices in this field at 5.5, the bare form doesn't shout confidence — three races, no wins, and a recent eighth place are the headlines. The data shows one place finish somewhere in those three runs, though the middle result is unclear, so there may be more to this horse than the surface suggests. Like several rivals today, it has never raced on slightly soft ground, which adds an element of uncertainty.

The market favourite and, crucially, the horse the editorial verdict singles out as having something genuine to build on — that Dundalk second place last month is the standout piece of form in this field and gives Musashi a clear edge over Cameclose, who also ran there but could only finish fourth. Blinkers go on for the first time today, which is often a trainer's way of saying 'we think there's more to come', and top jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride. The one unknown is today's slightly soft ground, which it hasn't faced before.

Three races, no wins, no place finishes, and now returning after nearly five months off — that's a lot to ask of any horse, let alone one that hasn't shown much yet. The form reads eighth, sixth, fifth, which is at least moving in the right direction, but this is a horse stepping back in after a long break with nothing encouraging on its CV. The high draw (9) is also in the least productive part of the track at this distance, adding another obstacle.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 14 races compared to an average of just 4 for its rivals — and also the lowest-rated, sitting 7lbs below the field average. That combination tells you this horse has had plenty of chances and hasn't taken them, with no wins from those 14 attempts. On the positive side, it carries the lightest weight in the race, has been running consistently and frequently (fourth and third in recent weeks), and a near-miss third place recently shows it can get close.