Haydock

Second in the market at 6.0 despite having zero wins and zero place finishes from five career races — that's the least impressive record of any of the fancied horses here. He's also making his first appearance with this jockey, and his recent runs have come in Ireland, so Haydock and wet ground are both new experiences.

Named as the editorial's second choice, Alkumatic Jo Jo has at least shown more consistency than most rivals — finishing in the top three three times from six races, though form has dipped in the last two outings. The draw in stall 12 is the worst in the field, and at a course where high draws win only around 1 in 17 races at this distance, that's a real obstacle to overcome.

Technically the only horse in this field with the best win rate — 1 from 6 races, roughly 1 in 6 — Senor Campanaro has at least proved he can win, which is more than most rivals can say. The concern is that his last run at Newmarket ended in tenth, and he's never raced on wet ground, so whether that Newcastle win translates to today's conditions is unknown.

The editorial pick to win, despite being the lowest-rated horse in the field by 6lbs and carrying the lightest weight — both of which can actually help in a race like this. The key argument in his favour is that he has raced here at Haydock twice before, finishing fifth and fourth, giving him a course familiarity that almost every other runner in this field simply doesn't have.