Grant Tuer

What makes the numbers more interesting is what has happened in the last two weeks. Three winners from just 9 runners — that is 1 in every 3, more than three times his seasonal average. Whether that is a purple patch, a well-timed run of form, or horses peaking at exactly the right moment, it is the kind of spell that gets people in racing talking.

Tuer's operation has also found a real sweet spot on wet and muddy ground. With 2 wins from just 3 races in those conditions, he is winning 2 in every 3 — a remarkable conversion rate that suggests he either knows exactly which horses to run when the skies open, or has quietly built a string that relish getting their hooves dirty. Either way, it is a useful edge to have in a British winter.

Musselburgh, the Edinburgh track that sits right on the Firth of Forth, has been particularly kind to him. Six winners from 21 runners there means he wins almost 1 in every 3.5 races at the course — well above his overall average, and the kind of record that turns a local track into something of a home fortress.

His most reliable partnership on track is with jockey Oliver Stammers, who has ridden for the yard 170 times and brought home 16 winners — 1 in every 10.6 rides. That volume of shared runners tells its own story: this is a genuine working relationship built on trust and repetition, not a flashy one-off booking. Then there is Shielas Well, a horse Tuer has run 22 times and won with 3 of them. In racing terms that might sound modest, but finding a horse you know inside out — one you keep running because you believe in it — is part of what separates a good trainer from a lucky one. Tuer, four years in and still accelerating, looks like the former.