Fontwell

Evening Tess has finished second in each of her last two races, so she is clearly knocking on the door — but she has yet to kick it open in four career attempts. The standout positive here is her team: jockey Harry Skelton and trainer Dan Skelton are both in red-hot form right now, winning more than half their races over the past two weeks. If anyone can get her over the line for the first time, it might be this combination.

Elated has finished third in three of her four races, which makes her admirably consistent — but also a horse that has never quite found that extra gear to win. She has never raced on normal ground conditions before, which is an unknown factor that could go either way here. Both her jockey and trainer have been in sharp form recently, winning 2 from 2 and 2 from 3 respectively over the past two weeks.

Frenati has the best win rate in the field, winning 2 from 5 races — roughly one in every two attempts — which puts her clear of every other rival on that measure. The complication is her last run, where she fell at Newton Abbot just 14 days ago, and her jockey and trainer have both gone without a winner recently. She is the second choice in the editorial verdict and has undeniable talent, but the fall is a question mark she needs to answer here.

Maria Mes has the longest absence in the field — she hasn't raced in 161 days — and returns having finished 12th and 5th in her only two outings. She has never raced on normal ground and her jockey has not won in 12 rides over the past fortnight, so the data offers very little to get excited about. On what we know, this looks like a horse still learning the ropes rather than one ready to compete at this level.