Fontwell
·
Jewson Handicap Hurdle
Starts in
7h 32min
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 4.6, yet this horse is stepping up three class levels today, which is a steep ask regardless of what the betting suggests. It has placed in its last two races without winning, and its record on normal ground — the conditions today — shows no wins from five attempts. The trainer yard has sent out one winner from ten runners in the last two weeks, which is modest, and this feels like a horse the market may have got carried away with.
Steps up 2 classes
Trainer in best form (1 from 10 last 2wk)
Market favourite (4.6)
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Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Named in the editorial as the most likely threat to the top pick, Mistress Fox finished second at this exact course just 35 days ago — beaten only two lengths — which is directly relevant form. Nine career races without a win is a concern, but that placed run at Fontwell shows this track suits and current fitness is not in doubt. If anything is going to run the favourite close, recent course form suggests it could be this one.
2nd in the market (5.3)
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TrackLab Insight
The standout angle here is simple: this is the only horse in the field that has won over this exact course and distance, and that win came at Fontwell just over a year ago. It ran a solid third at Worcester 19 days ago, so it arrives in decent nick and well within itself. Carrying the race's editorial verdict as the one to beat, and with a course-and-distance win that no rival can match, this is the most relevant form in the race.
Only winner at this distance
Has won over this course and distance
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TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in this field by some distance — 34 races compared to a field average of 14 — and boasts the best career win rate here, winning roughly 1 in every 5 races. Last time out at Fontwell it was brought down before the race could tell us much, but its record on normal ground (the best of any runner here) is genuinely solid. The big question is whether its recent form justifies favouritism, because the last few runs before that fall were largely disappointing.
Best record on this ground (2 from 12)
Most experienced (34 runs, field avg 14)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
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TrackLab Insight
Arrives on the back of a first career win at Ffos Las three weeks ago, finally breaking through after 12 races without a victory — form that gives this run obvious relevance. Joint second-highest rated in the field alongside Dunaden Island, so the official assessors regard it highly. The concern is a poor record on normal ground (no wins from six attempts), which is exactly the conditions it faces today.
2nd highest rated (OR 94)
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TrackLab Insight
Both of this horse's career wins have come at Plumpton — it has never won anywhere else across 23 races, making the switch to Fontwell a significant factor working against it. Pulled up last time out 65 days ago, and the run before that was a narrow third at Plumpton, which is about as good as it gets for this one. Hard to trust away from its favourite track.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
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TrackLab Insight
The youngest horse in the field at four years old, and the one with the lowest weight allocation — often a sign the handicapper views it as unexposed rather than necessarily well-treated. Five races, no wins, and no placed finishes at all, but the finishing positions have been improving run by run, from 13th down to 5th most recently. Stepping up three classes today is a significant jump, and the trainer has been in excellent form (two wins from three in the last two weeks), so it is not without interest as a raw young horse on the way up.
Carries lowest weight in field
Steps up 3 classes
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TrackLab Insight
This horse has not raced for nearly three years — by far the longest absence in the field — and returns with just three career races under its belt and no wins. The jockey and trainer are partnering for the first time, which adds another layer of uncertainty. With so little to go on and such a lengthy layoff, this is genuinely one of the biggest unknowns on the card.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Absent 1013 days (longest in field)
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TrackLab Insight
Rated 8lbs below the field average — the lowest official rating in this line-up — which means it is essentially being assessed as the weakest horse on form coming in. One win from 22 races tells a tough story, and a poor record on normal ground (no wins from four attempts) does not inspire confidence for today's conditions. A close third at Lingfield six weeks ago shows there is some ability, but the class and rating disadvantage is hard to overcome.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
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TrackLab Insight
Four races, no wins, and a single placed finish to show for it — this is the thinnest career record in the field. The market has taken a dim view too, drifting to 34/1 despite carrying a rating close to the top of the field, which is an unusual combination that is hard to explain positively. Beaten 95 lengths last time out at Stratford, the data here offers very little to build a case on.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
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