Wearing cheekpiecesJockey in form (7 wins in 14 days)Trainer in formWon 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and top-rated horse in the field, but those odds have drifted significantly — suggesting punters have had second thoughts. He finally landed his first career win just 34 days ago at Wexford, but this is a different challenge: trainer Dan Skelton is switching him back to hurdles for the first time in his care, and his record on normal ground and right-handed tracks is poor. Harry Skelton is riding in sharp form, winning more than half his races in the last two weeks, so the stable confidence is there — but there are real questions to answer here.
Jockey in best form (7 from 13 last 2wk)Trainer in best form (7 from 13 last 2wk)Market favourite (1.64)
Nine races into his career and still without a win, Alan Bresil has shown enough to place twice but never cross the line first. His best recent effort was a runner-up finish at Huntingdon just 16 days ago, beaten only 2.5 lengths, which at least shows he is running well enough. The concern is his jockey has gone without a winner in six rides over the last two weeks, and this combination has only managed one win from 22 races together.
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (78 days off)Jockey in form (5 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 36 races compared to the field average of 19 — and the editorial verdict picks him out as the main danger to the favourite. He won at Hereford 95 days ago and has the best win rate of any horse here, roughly 1 in every 12 races, though he has been off the track for 78 days. His record on normal ground is a concern — no wins from three tries — but he brings solid course-level experience that none of his rivals can match.
Best record on this ground (2 from 24)Most experienced (36 runs, field avg 19)Best career win rate in field (1 in 12)
Two wins from 35 races is a modest record, but crucially he ran here at Fontwell just 47 days ago and finished second — he knows this track and ran well on it recently. His overall record on normal ground shows no wins, which is a real red flag given today's conditions. At odds of 11.0, the course form is intriguing, but his wider ground record makes it hard to make a strong case.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
The lowest-rated horse in the field by a significant margin — 12 pounds below the field average — and the only horse here with no wins and no placed finishes across four career races. Her recent efforts have seen her beaten well adrift at Chepstow twice before a slightly better fourth at Ffos Las, but the data gives little reason for optimism. She carries the lightest weight, which helps, but this looks a tough ask.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.