The market has made this the favourite, and it's easy to see why — Ned In The Park won here at Clonmel just 30 days ago, giving it fresh course form that no other runner can match from recent action. However, it has never won on normal or faster ground across seven attempts, and today's conditions are exactly that. The win record (1 from 13) suggests punters may be putting a lot of faith in one timely victory.
Le Diablo has the best win rate in the field — winning 1 in every 7 races — and crucially won here at Clonmel just 30 days ago, the same track as today. That gives it fresh, relevant form at this exact venue, and at 6.0 it is shorter in the market than the favourite for good reason. The only concern is it has never won on normal ground across three attempts, but the course confidence is hard to ignore.
Won at this course & distanceWearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict singles this one out, and the key reason is straightforward: it has won over this exact course and distance before, and it has been dropped down the ratings after a couple of poor runs — meaning it gets in here with less weight than it might otherwise carry. It finished a close fourth just 24 days ago at Tramore, so it's fit and race-ready. At 8.0, this is the value play the race verdict is pointing you towards.
Fresh (168 days off)Jockey in form (3 wins in 14 days)Trainer in formWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Just three career races in, Le Kap is the least experienced horse in the field and has never raced on normal ground like today — both of its best efforts came on different conditions. The yard has a strong jockey-trainer partnership overall, but this horse's own record is thin: one place finish from three runs, then a distant eighth last time out. Too many unknowns to get excited about.
Never raced on normal groundLightly raced (3 career races)
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (119 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin — 12lbs below the field average — and the record backs that up: no wins and no place finishes from eight races, with recent results including a pulled-up and a fourteenth. This is a horse that has yet to show it belongs in a race like this. Difficult to make any case for it.
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (25% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The standout positive here is that Arctic Flame has the best record in the field on today's normal ground, winning once from four attempts at these conditions — no other runner matches that on this surface. The concern is brutal recent form: a distant fifth and an eleventh in the last two runs suggest something is badly off. Hard to trust until that form is explained.
Seven races in and still searching for a first win, Penny Express has at least placed four times — so it competes without ever quite getting over the line. It hasn't raced in roughly nine months, which is a significant unknown, and its last run before the break ended with it being pulled up. Trained by Gordon Elliott, but the horse itself hasn't shown enough yet to inspire confidence on its return.
Won at this course & distanceWearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
This is the only horse in the field with a win over this exact course and distance, and its record at today's trip is remarkable — two wins from just three races at 2m 4f. The catch is that its most recent run was a distant seventh, and it has never won on soft or muddy ground across five attempts, so conditions need to stay as they are. A genuine each-way case at 15s if you believe the course and distance form.
Has won over this course and distanceBest record at this trip (2 from 3)
Two of Ishan's three career wins have come on heavy ground, but today's conditions are normal — and there is no win from nine attempts on tracks like Clonmel, making this a difficult fit. The jockey and trainer have never won together in 19 attempts, which is another flag. A ninth here last month rounds off a picture that is hard to get enthusiastic about.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Fresh (403 days off)Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with 29 races under its belt, but it hasn't set foot on a racecourse in over 13 months — the longest absence of any runner here. It won three times in eight races on soft or muddy ground, but today's normal conditions are a different matter: it has never won on this type of surface across five attempts. A big ask on comeback day.
Most experienced (29 runs, field avg 15)Absent 403 days (longest in field)
Eleven races without a win is the blunt headline for Imarajan, and a fourth beaten over 50 lengths at Wexford last month doesn't soften it. The jockey and trainer have also never won together from 21 attempts. There is simply not enough in the record to make a case here.
The most extraordinary stat in the race: Brianna Lily has won twice from just four visits to Clonmel, a 50% win rate at this track that stands out sharply against a career win rate of roughly 1 in 13 everywhere else. The problem is it ran just four days ago and finished last of 12, and its form outside Clonmel is consistently poor. The course record is real, but the timing of this run raises serious questions.
Carries lowest weight in fieldCourse specialist (2 wins from 4 here)Runs again after just 4 days
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.