Chepstow

Zero wins from eight races and returning from a 210-day absence makes this a very tough sell. Its last run saw it beaten nearly 14 lengths, and the run before that it finished 12th — the evidence for a winning performance on comeback day simply is not there. One of the least experienced horses in the field and up against more seasoned rivals.

Four wins from 23 races is a decent career record, but all three of Macarone's recent runs have come at Wolverhampton on an artificial surface — this is a very different test on turf in slightly soft conditions. Its best form has come on standard indoor-track ground, and it has never won on grass, which is a significant concern today. The last six runs show nothing better than fourth place.

The biggest concern here is the 297-day absence — that is almost ten months off the track, and this horse has shown nothing encouraging in recent form, finishing seventh, sixth, and twelfth in its last three races. Despite carrying the highest official rating in the field, it has never won at this level of competition and its odds have drifted dramatically. Coming back after such a long break in a competitive 13-runner field makes this one very hard to recommend.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, sitting seven pounds below the average rating, Anglesey Lad has yet to win from 21 career races despite placing seven times. It arrives here in reasonable nick — fourth and fifth in its last two runs — but the official rating and winless record make this a horse that looks more likely to fill a minor place than trouble the winner. Drawn low in stall two, which is the most favourable part of the track here, at least.

Son of Astar has won 3 of its 22 career races, but the recent form reads sixth, eleventh, and fifth — none of it particularly encouraging. It has been off the track for 89 days and its best form has come on good ground, having never won on the slightly soft conditions it will face today. Hard to find a reason to get excited.

The least experienced horse in the field with just five career races, A Rose Adaay has managed only one placed finish in that time and is returning from a 203-day break. Its best effort at Chepstow — a third place 261 days ago — is the sole encouragement in an otherwise difficult record. Outclassed on paper by several rivals here.

Griselda has the best record over this exact trip in the entire field — three wins from eleven races at five to six-and-a-half furlongs — which is a genuinely useful stat in a sprint like this. However, all three of those wins have come on fast ground, and she has never won on anything resembling today's slightly soft conditions across nine attempts on similar surfaces. The 14-length defeat last time out is hard to ignore, even if she bounced back from poor runs before.

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 64 career races versus a field average of 26 — but that experience has produced just two wins, roughly 1 in every 32 races. Crucially, Alyara has never won at Chepstow from five attempts, and has never won on slightly soft, soft, or any other wet ground type tested across multiple tries. Carries the lightest weight in the race, but the record makes it very difficult to fancy.