Chepstow
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Treble Odds L15s At David Lucas Handicap
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All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
One of only two horses in the field with an actual win at Chepstow, and unlike several rivals, has raced recently — just 23 days ago. The key strength here is a solid record at today's trip of 7 furlongs to a mile, winning roughly 1 in every 5 races at that distance, which directly suits today's conditions.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Super Value
TrackLab Insight
The market has made this the favourite at 3.35, yet this horse hasn't raced in over eight months — the longest absence of any runner in the field. The last run before that break was a beaten 12 lengths in eighth, so punters are putting a lot of faith in a turnaround with very little recent evidence to go on.
Absent 245 days (longest in field)
Market favourite (3.35)
TrackLab Insight
This horse has a genuinely impressive record on soft ground, winning 2 from 5 attempts — a 40% win rate that is the best in the field for today's conditions. The worry is a career-long struggle on left-handed tracks like Chepstow, with zero wins from 11 attempts on circuits that turn this way.
Among the fancied runners (8.5)
TrackLab Insight
The editorial pick, and the data backs it up strongly — four wins from 12 races at Chepstow specifically, a win rate of 1 in 3 at this track versus 1 in 6 everywhere else, making him the standout course specialist in the field. He's also drawn in stall 4, right in the low-draw sweet spot where horses win most often at this course and distance. A recent win at Wolverhampton and a placed run since keep his form live.
Course specialist (4 wins from 12 here)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
TrackLab Insight
This is the horse that the ground conditions most favour — two wins from six races on soft or slightly soft turf, and two wins from eight races specifically at today's distance of 7 furlongs, the best record in the field on both counts. The concern is a thumping 15-length defeat last time out, and the high draw in stall 10 isn't ideal on this track.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)
Best record at this trip (2 from 8)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2024
"She's tough little filly who won last time out at Goodwood, her second win of the season. She's a 6f filly and possibly a 7f one. She has no real ground preferences- she's a good regular runner and is still improving. She goes to Carlisle on Thursday for her next run. 11-07-24"
TrackLab Insight
Has gone 28 races winning only twice, and comes back here after a four-month break with a troubling record on today's slightly soft ground — zero wins from six attempts in similar conditions. Drawn in the worst stall in the field at 12, where high draws at this course and distance really struggle.
2nd highest rated (OR 67)
TrackLab Insight
No horse in this field has a better record at Chepstow — seven wins from 30 races here, winning nearly 1 in every 4 trips to this track, compared to just 3 wins from 40 races everywhere else. The low draw in stall 2 suits the course's bias, and while recent form has been modest, her record on wet ground is also solid with a 25% win rate on heavy going.
Most experienced (70 runs, field avg 24)
TrackLab Insight
Has never raced on slightly soft ground before, so today is a genuine unknown — there is simply no data to suggest how she handles these conditions. Three poor recent runs, the lowest rated among the closely-matched mid-pack, and an apprentice jockey claiming 7lbs round out a profile with more questions than answers.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some distance — rated 13 pounds below the field average — and has never won in 28 career races, including nine attempts at this very track without success. Carries the lightest weight in the race, which is the one small plus, but the record makes it very difficult to make a case.
Lowest rated, 13lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
TrackLab Insight
One of only a handful of horses in this field with a win at Chepstow, which counts for something — but the record on wet or soft ground is a flat zero from six tries, and today's slightly soft conditions are exactly what she struggles with. She's also been off the track for seven months, and that draw bias data doesn't help her mid-draw stall either.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
TrackLab Insight
Drawn in stall 11, which is in the worst part of the track at this distance — high draws here win less than 1 in 12 races. Despite carrying one of the highest ratings in the field, the market has completely turned against this horse, drifting out to 34/1 from what looks like a clerical error in the opening price. A distant ninth last time out and two long absences before that make it hard to argue with the punters.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field with just six career races and no wins to show for any of them — most rivals have raced at least three times as often. Two heavy defeats in a row at Southwell, beaten 15 lengths on each occasion, leave little to get excited about here.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
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