York

The editorial selection, Ten Bob Tony is rated 121 (second highest) and has won two of his last three races (at Ascot and Epsom), showing genuine momentum into this race. He wins roughly one in every three starts and remains undefeated on good-to-soft ground based on his recent Goodwood run, making him a progressive horse at 7.0 where the market has tightened from 9.4.

Lake Forest is a top-rated threat at 118, but has never tackled slightly soft ground and that's a genuine concern on a day like this. He won here at York last August and holds a 40% win rate on fast, dry ground, yet that strength won't apply today—this is unfamiliar territory for a horse who also struggles on galloping right-handed tracks.

Flora Of Bermuda is a genuine course specialist at York with two wins from four starts here, and she just won at Goodwood 24 days ago—form that matters. Her recent record reads 1-1-18, meaning she bounced back dramatically after that Ascot collapse, and she's the only course winner in this field, yet her poor record on good ground (0 wins from 4) is a concern given the slightly soft surface.

Zavateri is a three-year-old with an impressive 57% win rate (four wins from seven races) and has won two Class 1 races this summer, yet his form has stalled since July—he's finished fifth, second, and fourth in his last three starts. He's never raced on slightly soft ground and his recent run at Goodwood 24 days ago was a disappointment, making him less attractive than his raw statistics suggest at 7.4.