Wexford

Sent off as market favourite despite a recent run at Cheltenham that saw him finish ninth, beaten nearly 32 lengths in the highest-class company in the sport — that context matters, but it's still a concerning display. He has never raced on slightly soft ground before, so today is an unknown, and his overall record away from his best reads as patchy at best with one win from six career races. The market clearly believes in him more than his recent form suggests.

The least experienced horse in the field by a long way — only 2 career races compared to a field average of 10 — but he arrives on the back of a win here at Wexford just 9 days ago, giving him fresher course form than any rival. At just four years old he is also the youngest in the race, and with only two runs to his name there is genuine uncertainty about how good he really is. The jockey claims a 7lb weight allowance which helps, but the trainer-jockey partnership has managed just 3 wins from 46 races together.

Out of all six runners, Ma Jacks Hill has the best record specifically over this 2-mile trip, with one win from five races at the distance. Today's slightly soft ground also plays to a strength — he has won one from three on soft ground, a better conversion rate than his overall career average of roughly 1 win in every 9 races. The worry is a run of three consecutive disappointing finishes, including two fifth places and a sixth, heading into today.

The longest absentee in the field by some distance, returning after 147 days off the track following a pulled up run and a distant fourth in his last two outings. He has the best win rate on this type of ground among those with relevant form — one from four on slightly soft conditions — but asking a horse to perform first time back after nearly five months is always a big ask. Data here is limited enough that caution is the honest approach.