Warwick

The lowest-rated and lightest-weighted horse in the field, Full Force Gale is at a clear disadvantage on paper — rated 10 points below the field average. What catches the eye is a second-place finish here at Warwick just 39 days ago, beaten only a length and a half, making it the only runner in the field with recent form at this exact course. Five career races give us limited information, but it arrives here fresher and more course-relevant than most.

Another Folly has just one win from 15 career races — the lowest win rate of any horse in this field with meaningful experience. It has finished fourth in three of its last four races, which tells you it competes without ever quite threatening to land a blow. Like several rivals today, it has never won on normal ground in six attempts.

The longest absence in the field by a distance — this horse has not raced in 256 days, the equivalent of sitting out most of the season. On the plus side, its best form has come on exactly this type of normal ground, and a second place at Warwick in the past shows it handles this course. Returning from such a long break is always a risk, but the trainer has hit form with two winners from eight in the last fortnight.

DJ Pete carries the lowest official rating of any horse bar Full Force Gale, sitting 11 points below the field average — a significant disadvantage in a race like this. A win at Bangor 44 days ago looked promising, but a pull-up at Chepstow just three weeks later muddies the water. Like most of this field, it has never won on normal ground, with zero wins from seven attempts.