M. Kit Alexander(5)
·
N. W Alexander
· 6yo
· 11st 8lb
· OR 101
FormTrack
24
Won 1 of last 5Won here 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and the editorial pick — and the case is straightforward: this horse won at Perth just 21 days ago over three miles, and today's extra distance could suit a horse still finding its best form at six years old. The best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 3.5 races backs up why punters have made this the one to beat. The only real flag is a record of no wins from three outings on soft ground, but conditions are normal today.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)Market favourite (4.7)
Fresh (77 days off)Won 1 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
One of the most powerful jockey-trainer partnerships in the field — Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy have won together more than 300 times — but the horse's most recent result is unknown, which makes form judgement tricky. Good ground suits this horse better than most in the race, and today's normal conditions play to that strength, though a win rate of roughly 1 in 11 keeps expectations measured.
Wearing hoodWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesLoves this ground (29% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The standout course record here is real — two wins from five races at Perth makes this one of the genuine course specialists in the field. However, the odds have drifted dramatically and recent form shows two modest efforts, including a 28-length defeat at Kelso. Worth respecting at this track, but hard to fancy with confidence based on what we've seen lately.
Won 1 of last 5Won here 1 timeLoves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Won at Perth just 21 days ago — the same course and the same recent winning form as the favourite — and has the best record on normal ground in the entire field, winning 2 from 6 on similar conditions. That makes this horse one of the most compelling alternatives to the market leader, especially at a bigger price. The step up in trip from that recent win is the one question to answer.
Fresh (176 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The second-highest rated horse in the field, but hasn't raced in nearly six months — a long break that makes it hard to know what to expect on return. Consistent enough in recent form with three third-place finishes in a row before the break, but yet to win on normal ground in four attempts, which is a concern given today's conditions.
Despite sharing the second-highest rating in the field, the recent form is hard to ignore — eighth, fifth, and ninth in its last three races, beaten well on each occasion. Wears blinkers to sharpen focus, but on normal ground today it has never won from four attempts on similar conditions, making a turnaround hard to argue for.
One of only a handful of course winners in this field, which matters over an unusual trip of just over three miles at a track that doesn't suit every horse. Third here just 20 days ago keeps her very fresh in the memory, and the jockey-trainer combination has a solid working record together. She's consistent without being a frequent winner, but the course form gives her a genuine claim.
Wearing tongue strapWon 2 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
At 10 years old, Shoeshine Boy brings more experience than almost anyone in this field — 37 races and seven wins is a solid career by any measure. His best form has come at Ayr rather than Perth, and he hasn't won on normal ground in three tries, so today's conditions aren't ideal. Still a horse who earned his place here, but the track and ground don't set him up well.
One of the more successful in the field (7 career wins)
Among the most experienced horses in the field with 31 races to her name, but has won just twice in that time — roughly once every 16 outings — and has never won at Perth in six attempts here. A second place at Carlisle recently shows she can be competitive, but a record of no wins on normal ground from seven tries is a serious obstacle today.
Fresh (261 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by far — 261 days off the track — and has never won in 14 career races, making this one of the most difficult horses to make a case for. The jockey and trainer haven't worked together before, which adds another layer of uncertainty on return from such a long break. Honest enough to keep placing, but hard to see the win coming today.
Fresh (182 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a wide margin — 51 races compared to a field average of 18 — but also the lowest rated, sitting 9lbs below the field average, which tells you the handicapper doesn't rate him highly against this group. Three wins from 51 races and a string of fifth-place finishes recently, combined with nearly six months off the track, make it very hard to fancy a big run here.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldMost experienced (51 runs, field avg 18)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.