Newcastle

An interesting puzzle: this horse has never raced on normal ground conditions before, having built all its form elsewhere — primarily at Kempton. Three consecutive top-three finishes show it is in solid current form, but switching to a different track and an unfamiliar surface on the same day is a double unknown. Wins roughly 1 in every 5 races overall, which is respectable, but tonight is genuinely uncharted territory.

Three straight top-three finishes at Newcastle — including a second and a third in the last 29 days — make this seven-year-old a genuine contender on current form at this track. He has won three times at Newcastle from 14 attempts, so the course holds no secrets for him. The worry is that he keeps getting beaten rather than winning, and at 8.0 he may be a horse who flatters to deceive.

The race preview singles this horse out, and there is a solid reason — he races 7lb better off than when he finished third behind Lord Capulet here 29 days ago, which makes that narrow defeat look even more respectable. Three wins at Newcastle from 20 attempts shows genuine course affinity, and a third-place finish beaten less than a length last time out confirms he is in good shape. If the weight turnaround counts for what the editorial suggests, he is the one most likely to upset the favourite.

Shares an official rating with several rivals but has only converted that into a win once from 18 career races — roughly 1 in every 18 outings. Back-to-back poor runs of 7th and 8th in his last two races make it hard to make a case, and his record on normal ground conditions here is zero wins from five attempts. Hard to recommend with any confidence.