Newcastle

Second in the market at 5.5, Hen Party is still chasing a first win from seven races but she has been runner-up three times, showing she's competitive without quite getting over the line. Her last run was a fourth at Nottingham, which was a step back after those placed efforts — she'll need to find a gear she hasn't shown recently to go one better here.

Ten races into her career and still waiting for a first win, Maldevious has managed just one placed finish across those outings — meaning she's finished fourth or worse in nine of them. She drifted badly in the market from an early price of 1.1 out to 9.5, which suggests those closest to the race aren't confident. Hard to make a case for her against more progressive rivals here.

The least experienced horse in the field with just three races under her belt, and she has never raced on normal ground conditions like she'll face today — so there's a genuine unknown at the heart of her chance. Her form figures of 8-2-10 show real inconsistency, swinging between promising and very poor. With so little data to go on, this is largely a leap of faith.

The editorial tip for this race, and there's logic behind it — she's one of the most experienced horses in the field and has been placed in over half her 17 career races. She finished just 1.8 lengths off the winner last time out, right here at Newcastle, which is an encouraging stepping stone. The trainer's yard is reported to be in good form, and she's drawn in a low stall (4) on a track where low draws perform as well as any.