Market Rasen

The only horse in the field apart from De Deli Counter who has actually won over this course and distance, which is a meaningful piece of form — but he has been off the track for 127 days, the longest absence in the field, and pulled up last time out at Catterick. His record on left-handed galloping tracks like Market Rasen reads zero wins from six attempts, which is hard to ignore. Rustiness and a difficult course profile make him a risky proposition.

Eight years old and still looking for a first career win from 18 races — no horse in this field has raced more without winning. His recent form is a consistent string of fourth-place finishes, which tells you he's running honestly without ever threatening to take a race. Rated 11lbs below the field average, he faces the class leaders from a significant disadvantage.

The lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin — 15lbs below the average — and the only runner with zero wins and zero placed finishes from six career races. His last run saw him finish 11th, beaten over 65 lengths, and the overall trend of his results is moving in the wrong direction. The light weight he carries is the one small mercy, but there is little in the data to suggest he can compete with these rivals.

The second-highest rated horse in the field, but one win from 16 races over eight years is a tough record to look past, and that single victory came nearly three years ago. He ran a respectable third at Newcastle last month, which is his best recent effort, but his record on normal ground — zero wins from five attempts — is a real concern given today's conditions. His name is doing honest work again here.