Blue Bear

The recent form offers the tiniest hint of something to work with. Those three consecutive fourth-place finishes — a sequence buried in the last six runs — suggest Blue Bear is at least competitive at this level, finding a way to be involved without ever quite finding the extra gear needed to win. A fifth and a pair of sevenths also sit in that recent record, though, which keeps expectations firmly in check. Racing yesterday means the horse is very much in active service, still being aimed at races and still turning up.

Blue Bear typically competes in Class 5, which is where the most modest horses in British racing find their level. At that grade, it has run 10 times and won none of them — 0 from 10. That is not the profile of a horse that is simply unlucky or held back by the level of competition. Tom Midgley has partnered the horse five times without a win to show for it, though the pair keep lining up together, which at least speaks to continuity.

The training operation behind Blue Bear is worth noting. Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith, based at High Eldwick in West Yorkshire, have sent out 42 winners this season — this is clearly a yard that knows how to get horses winning. That Blue Bear has not been one of them is not for lack of effort or expertise. Some horses simply find winning elusive, and Blue Bear, through 20 races and eight years, falls squarely into that category. Whether there is a first win still to come is the one genuinely open question left in this story.