Jockey in form (4 wins in 14 days)Won 2 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
This is the one to beat on paper: top-rated in the field by 5lbs, the only horse here who has already won at Killarney, and with the best win rate in the race — 2 wins from 5 attempts. Jockey Darragh O'Keeffe has been in red-hot form, winning 4 of his last 13 rides in the past two weeks. On almost every measurable basis, Midnight Jet stands out from this field.
Top rated by 5lbsOnly course winner (1 from 1 here)Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)Jockey in best form (4 from 13 last 2wk)
Never raced before, so there is no form to assess — but Columbus arrives as the market favourite at 2.6, which means plenty of people believe the training ground work has been impressive. Willie Mullins, widely regarded as the best trainer in Ireland, saddles this horse with his number-one jockey Paul Townend on board, and the editorial verdict singles him out as the preferred pick. On debut, it is all about faith in the team — and that team is about as strong as it gets.
Three races, three top-three finishes — including a win at Kilbeggan just 17 days ago — gives this horse an unusually clean record for such an inexperienced runner. Trained by Gordon Elliott, whose yard has sent out over 200 winners already this season, so the support team is hard to fault. Only three races in total makes him lightly tested, but everything he has done so far points in the right direction.
Like stablemate Columbus, Mr Hollywood has never raced before so there is nothing in the form book to go on. He is six years old on debut, which is older than most horses making their first appearance, and while patience sometimes pays off, it does add an extra layer of uncertainty. Willie Mullins trains him, which guarantees serious preparation, but at 8.5 he sits well behind Columbus in the market pecking order.
Jockey in form (1 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Wins 1 in every 4 races, which is a decent return for a horse this lightly raced, and a win at Fairyhouse earlier this year shows real promise. The big red flag is that his odds have collapsed from near-evens to a 29-1 outsider — the market is clearly not expecting much today. He has also never raced on slightly wet ground like this, so conditions are an unknown.
Only two career races, the most recent of which was six months ago, makes L'As de Watt one of the harder horses to assess in this field. A second-place finish at Cork gives a small reason for encouragement, but this horse has never raced on slightly wet ground, and the jockey-trainer combination are working together for the first time today. Too many unknowns to get excited about.
Never raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (2 career races)
The least experienced horse in the field with just one career race to its name, and that came over seven months ago — the longest absence of any runner today. A second place on debut is the only evidence available, and while it shows ability, returning from that long a break always raises questions about readiness. A hood has been added for today, suggesting the trainer is working on keeping the horse focused.
Lightly raced (1 career races)Absent 224 days (longest in field)
Three races without a win, and the most recent outing — a 9th-place finish beaten 48 lengths at Bellewstown — was a step in the wrong direction after a promising third at Thurles. Raced just 23 days ago so at least arrives fit, but the form line is heading the wrong way into a competitive field. Hard to make a case for him here.
Three races and three finishes of 7th, 10th, and 12th tell an honest story — this horse has not been competitive so far. Coming back after six months off the track and ridden by an amateur jockey, this is the toughest assignment in the field. At 100-1, the market agrees there is very little to recommend him here.
Never raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (3 career races)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.