Hamilton

The market favourite and the only horse in the field to have actually won at Hamilton, scoring here 38 days ago and finishing a close third here just six days ago — both very relevant credentials. Racing again quickly after that run is worth noting, but the fact he was beaten less than a length last time out suggests he is in great heart right now. The low draw in stall 3 suits this track, and his record on normal ground is solid.

The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 6 races — and has finished in the top three in her last three outings, including a win at Musselburgh 20 days ago and two seconds at Ripon since. She has the best record in the field over this exact trip, with 5 wins from 19 races at five furlongs. The only note of caution is that she has never won on normal ground in three attempts, though that record is small in size.

The editors have tipped this horse to beat Canaria Queen, who finished 1.5 lengths ahead at Ripon 13 days ago — so a turnaround is needed. The concern is that all three of its career wins came on fast, dry ground, and it has never won on normal conditions in nine attempts. Hamilton is also a left-handed, galloping track, where this horse has yet to win in eight tries.

The most experienced horse in the field by a wide margin — 46 races compared to a field average of 24 — and his trainer is the best-performing in the last two weeks, sending out 3 winners from 12 runners. However, his record on normal ground is a concern: just 1 win from 19 attempts, meaning his best form has come elsewhere. The result of his last run at Carlisle 23 days ago is unknown, which leaves a small gap in the picture.