The market favourite despite carrying the lightest weight in the field and a run of three consecutive fourth-place finishes — close enough to suggest it belongs, but not quite getting the job done. Its record at this longer distance is its best asset, but it has never won on normal ground, which is a real concern today. Hard to fully trust at the head of the market.
Carries lowest weight in fieldMarket favourite (2.92)
Wearing cheekpiecesQuick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5Loves this ground (29% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Three finishes in the top three on the bounce — including a win at Doncaster — and the best record in this field on normal ground, winning 2 from 7 on it. The only slight flag is that it runs again after just 6 days, though clearly the trainer is happy to roll the dice quickly. The obvious danger to the favourite pick.
Best record on this ground (2 from 7)3 straight top-3 finishesRuns again after just 6 days
Trainer Quotes
Jan 2025
"I bought him from Johnny Murtagh. He's having a break but I really like him and I think he can compete in the nice Saturday staying races for new owners in the yard. I was keen to go jumping with him but we'll probably do that next year. 01-01-25"
Jockey in form (5 wins in 14 days)Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The editorial nap, and it's easy to see why — this horse has finished second twice in its last three races and is clearly in a purple patch of form. Jockey Jason Hart has ridden 5 winners from 23 races in the last fortnight, so the partnership arrives in good nick. Of all the runners, this one has the strongest recent momentum.
Best record at this trip (1 from 4)Jockey in best form (5 from 23 last 2wk)
Won at this course & distanceWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a mile — 47 races to the field average of 20 — and crucially the only runner who has won over this exact course and distance. However, its last six finishes read 10-6-14-6-5-5, and like several rivals it has never won on normal ground. Veteran know-how counts for something, but the recent form is hard to overlook.
Lowest rated, 3lbs below averageHas won over this course and distanceMost experienced (47 runs, field avg 20)
Fresh (426 days off)Won 1 of last 5Won here 2 times
TrackLab Insight
A horse with a genuinely impressive record — 7 wins from 25 races, roughly 1 in every 4 — but it hasn't been seen on a racecourse for 426 days, the longest absence in this field. The big concern is its record on normal ground: zero wins from 9 attempts, which is exactly what's on offer today. Plenty of ability, but big questions to answer.
Absent 426 days (longest in field)Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
The top-rated horse in the field by a clear 7lbs, yet the market has almost completely written it off at 21/1 — that's a striking disconnect. Two career races, zero wins, and a 73-length beating last time out make it hard to argue with the punters. The rating suggests potential that hasn't shown up on the track yet.
Top rated by 7lbsLightly raced (2 career races)Trainer in best form (6 from 24 last 2wk)Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.