Ayr

This horse hasn't raced in 319 days — the longest absence in the field — and has never won in six career races, making it very hard to recommend with confidence. The jockey, Connor Beasley, is in sharp form (4 wins from 24 rides in the last two weeks), which is the one bright spot, but a long absence and a winless record are tough hurdles to clear first time back.

One win from 21 races (roughly 1 in 20) and no wins at all on good, dry ground from five attempts — the conditions today don't suit her profile. She ran a fair third at Thirsk 17 days ago, so she's at least in decent nick, but drawn in stall 10 (a mid-draw that historically struggles here) doesn't help her cause.

One of only two course winners in this field, which counts for something at Ayr, but his last three runs have been poor — beaten 3 to 8 lengths each time — and he hasn't raced in 181 days. His record on dry ground is actually decent (3 wins from 14 races), so the conditions aren't the issue; it's whether six months off has left him short of fitness.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the lightest weight, but the form figures are alarming — four consecutive runs of 8th, 7th, 8th and 9th, beaten heavily each time. Most damning of all, he has never won in 11 attempts at Ayr, and has zero wins from 27 races on any type of dry ground. This is not the track or the conditions for him.

One of only two course winners in the field — and she has two wins at Ayr specifically — but today's dry ground is a serious problem: she has never won on fast conditions in seven attempts and does all her best work on softer surfaces. Six months off the track adds another layer of doubt, despite the local course knowledge.