Royal Duke

The key to understanding Royal Duke is Musselburgh, the tight, flat track on the Firth of Forth just outside Edinburgh. He has raced there 12 times and won twice, which works out to winning 1 in every 6 races at that particular venue. That might not sound extraordinary until you realise his overall record is 1 in 8 everywhere else. Musselburgh suits him. The track clearly brings something out in him that other courses don't, and the team based at Galston in East Ayrshire — a straight drive up the A71 — will know exactly where to point him when they want a result.

All three of his wins have come on normal ground conditions, going 3 from 14 on a standard surface, or roughly 1 in every 5 races when conditions suit. He is not a horse for wet, muddy days, and he is not a horse for fast, baked ground either. Give him something in the middle and he becomes a noticeably different proposition. That 21% win rate on good ground is almost double his overall figure, which is exactly the kind of thing his regular jockey Rhys Elliott will have filed away. Elliott has ridden him 15 times for 2 wins, and that partnership has become the settled combination the yard trusts on the big days.

Royal Duke operates at Class 6 level — the entry-level tier of British racing — and has won 3 of his 16 races at that grade, around 1 in every 5. That is his comfort zone, and there is no shame in that. Every horse finds its level. His recent form reads 7-10-8-6-10-1, meaning five quiet runs followed by a win at Musselburgh as recently as August. He raced just yesterday, so he is clearly an active, well-managed horse right now. With 25 winners already on the board this season, R Mike Smith's yard is in form — and when Royal Duke gets back to Musselburgh on a dry day, he will be worth a second look.