Windsor

Three races, three top-three finishes — Blue Deveron is the most consistent horse in the field without a win, and that narrow defeat last time out, beaten less than a length at Southwell, suggests a first win is not far away. The catch is that all three runs have come on artificial or wet surfaces, and today's dry ground at Windsor is an untested factor.

The longest absence in the field — not having raced for over seven months — and returning with zero wins from five career races. The trainer has had a bright fortnight with a 1 from 2 record, but asking a horse to bounce back to form after that length of time off, in a competitive field, is a big ask.

Like stablemate Blue Deveron, Mehmas Engine has never raced on dry ground — an unknown that matters on a day like today. The worry is that last run, when she finished a well-beaten ninth at Nottingham, a sharp step back from the placed efforts before it.

Queen Sana's trainer is in the best form of any handler in this field, winning 2 from 12 over the last fortnight, which is worth noting. But the horse itself has never raced on dry ground, and that last run — finishing eleventh at Southwell — followed a promising third, making the form hard to read with confidence.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the lightest weight, and the only runner here with nine races to its name and not a single top-three finish to show for any of them. Never having raced on dry ground adds another question mark, and finishing last of twelve at Nottingham just eight days ago makes it very hard to make a case.

Drawn in stall 11, which is statistically the worst place to be at Windsor over five furlongs — high draws win only about 1 in 20 races here. Wild Act has also never raced on dry ground, was beaten nearly fourteen lengths last time out, and the jockey-trainer combination has managed just 3 wins from 62 races together — the data points mostly in the wrong direction.