Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and the editorial pick for the race, this horse ran a cracking second at Wincanton 45 days ago, beaten less than a length. With 30 career races under his belt — double the field average — he is by far the most experienced horse here, and today's normal ground plays to his strengths. The catch is a new jockey partnership today, and his record shows he has never won at this course, so there are genuine reasons to look beyond the hype.
Most experienced (30 runs, field avg 15)Market favourite (4.6)
Seven races, no wins, no places, and a sequence of finishes consistently towards the back of the field — the record here is bleak. This horse and jockey are working together for the first time, which rarely helps when a partnership needs to find improvement. There is very little in the data to suggest this race will go differently.
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (169 days off)Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The big question here is fitness — this horse hasn't raced in 169 days, the longest absence in the field, and returns to a higher class than his recent wins suggest he belongs in. He has won just once in 15 races, and his best form has come in normal to dry conditions, which today's ground suits. The market has drifted sharply away from him, which tells its own story.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (73 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the race with just four career races, and the form figures of 7-13-6-6 offer no encouragement at all. This horse has not once finished in a placing position and has been beaten by very wide margins throughout. The jockey and trainer pairing have yet to win together from 15 attempts, making this one of the hardest horses in the race to back.
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (25% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The standout stat for this ten-year-old is his record on normal ground — four wins from 16 races on this type of surface, the best in the field today. He wins roughly 1 in every 6 races overall, the best career win rate in this field, and he was only beaten five and a half lengths last time out at Fontwell. He's an honest and experienced competitor who deserves respect in these conditions.
Best record on this ground (4 from 16)Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Two pulled-up finishes in his last two races make this horse very difficult to support, and his only career win came over two years ago. His record on normal ground is poor — no wins from five attempts — which is a significant negative today. At 21/1 and in this kind of form, it is hard to see where the improvement comes from.
Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Crucially, Annie Nail is the only horse in this field with a win recorded at today's distance of 2m 5f, making her standout for this specific race. She won at Fakenham just over a month ago and has finished second and third since, so she arrives in excellent recent form — arguably the sharpest in the race. On normal ground she wins roughly 1 in 6 races, and at 8/1 she looks a serious each-way alternative to the favourite.
Only winner at this distanceBest record at this trip (1 from 6)
No wins from seven races, though a second place earlier in the season shows this horse is capable of being competitive. The recent form of consecutive fourth-place finishes suggests it runs consistently without threatening to win, and at 12/1 in a race with more credible contenders, the odds feel about right. Wind surgery in the past hints the trainer has been working to find more from this horse.
Carrying the lowest weight in the race gives a small theoretical advantage, but Sawpit Samantha is also rated 16 pounds below the field average — the lowest-rated runner here by some margin. Seventeen races without a win, and an 8th-place finish beaten 65 lengths last time out, paints a tough picture. The weight allowance rarely bridges a gap that wide.
Lowest rated, 16lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
Despite carrying one of the highest official ratings in the race, the market has almost completely ignored this horse, drifting to 21/1 — a clear sign that backers aren't buying the rating. Seven races in and still no wins, with a run of pulled-up finishes recently making this very hard to recommend. The data on the most recent run is incomplete, which only adds to the uncertainty.
At nine years old, this horse has never won a race from nine attempts — but a close second, beaten just a length at Newcastle five weeks ago, shows there is still something to work with. The problem is that run was sandwiched between a fall and a pulled-up finish, making the form hard to trust. The jockey and trainer have never won together in three attempts, adding another layer of doubt.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.