Uttoxeter

One of only two horses in this field to have won more than once, but the recent form is alarming — pulled up, unseated, and beaten 26 lengths in three straight runs at Hereford. The odds have drifted dramatically, which tells you the market has seen enough. Hard to trust at this point despite the cheekpieces going on.

Two career wins make this horse one of the more accomplished in the field on paper, but the recent form — pulled up, beaten 37 lengths, fell — is about as bad as it gets across three consecutive runs. At eight years old and with that kind of recent evidence, it is difficult to make a case for reversal here.

The editorial verdict tips this horse to win, and the angle is straightforward: lightly raced with only three career runs, there is likely more improvement to come than from most rivals here. Two second-place finishes from three races shows the ability is there, and stepping into a handicap race for the first time often suits horses who are still developing. The least exposed runner in the field.

Six races in and yet to finish in the top three once — the consistent string of 5th, 8th, 9th, 8th, 9th tells you exactly what to expect. Rated 8lbs below the field average, this horse is among the lower-ranked runners in the race. There is nothing in the data to suggest today will be different.

Nine years old with just five races to its name and no wins, this is a horse with limited opportunities to prove itself. Coming back after nearly six months off the track is a significant challenge, and the jockey-trainer pairing has yet to win together in 15 attempts. Hard to make a compelling case here.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 41 races compared to a field average of around 10 — and the best career win rate here, winning roughly 1 in every 6 races. Crucially, this is the only horse in the field with a recorded win at today's course, Uttoxeter, and he races here with that course knowledge fresh. The recent form has been poor, but the profile for today's conditions is stronger than most.

The longest absence in the field at 191 days, and coming back having pulled up in each of the last two completed runs before that break. Ten races without a win or a placed finish makes this a very hard horse to recommend, and the layoff only adds to the concern. Little here to suggest a turnaround is coming.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the lightest weight, and rated 15lbs below the average of its rivals — that gap is significant in a race like this. Finishing 11th, 11th, and 12th in recent races, beaten by enormous distances each time, there is no form angle to argue here. Wind surgery has been performed, but the results so far give little reason for optimism.