The market favourite and the best career win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in every 3 races is a genuinely impressive record at this level. However, his odds have drifted sharply from what they opened at, and he finished ninth here at Thirsk just two weeks ago, so confidence is not universal. He carries the highest weight in the field too, which adds another layer of difficulty.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)Market favourite (4.7)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"He's a really nice horse and is growing up and developing all the time. It was a rough race at Sandown on Saturday when he finished sixth but I'm sure he'll put that run behind him and show the running to be wrong. He's running over 7f at the moment but I wouldn't rule out a mile. 09-07-25"
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (33% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict singles him out as the one to beat, and the case is strong — he won at Ascot last summer, ran a solid third at Redcar last month to signal a return to form, and his record on normal ground reads two wins from just four races, the best ground record in the field. He draws stall one, which carries no meaningful advantage or disadvantage at this course and distance, so everything comes down to whether that Redcar run is the spark he needed.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Trainer Quotes
Apr 2025
"He's come back in good shape and we started him off over seven furlongs at Musselburgh on Sunday to get a bit of the gas out of him. He won at Ascot at the Shergar Cup meeting and the Victoria Cup could be for him on his second start. The stiff seven at Ascot or sharp mile at York will be among his options. 14-04-25"
Wearing tongue strapFresh (330 days off)Won 1 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
She hasn't raced in 330 days — the longest absence of any horse in this field — so there is a real unknown about how sharp she'll be first time back. When she has been running, she's been competitive, winning roughly 1 in 3 races and placing in five of seven, but that layoff is a significant question mark that punters have to weigh up.
Absent 330 days (longest in field)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"She's a very progressive filly and great to have around. She ran really well in the Sandringham at Ascot, where she was drawn away from the first three - if she'd have been drawn closer she might have given them something to think about. Being driven down in the heat, running in it and coming back again on the same day was a tall order for her. She's had three fairly quick runs and I'd imagine we'll look for a handicap towards the end of July. There's a 0-95 fillies' handicap at Goodwood that could fit the bill. 02-07-25"
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Loves this ground (75% win rate)Won at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
His standout fact is a remarkable record on normal ground — three wins from just four races at this type of going, which is the best ground record in the entire field. The catch is that he finished ninth at Musselburgh last month and has never won on a left-handed track, and Thirsk is exactly that. Those two concerns temper what looks like a genuine conditions advantage.
Won 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
One of the less experienced horses in the field with just ten races behind him, and his recent form makes for tough reading — a fifteenth at Newbury last month is hard to overlook. He has never won on a left-handed track, and Thirsk is one, which adds further doubt.
Relatively inexperienced (10 career races)
Trainer Quotes
Apr 2025
"I'm delighted with him and we've taken a very speculative punt and stuck him in the Derby. He had only two runs last year, winning his maiden at Epsom and then finishing fourth in a Group 3 at Deauville in August. He went for another novice at Wolverhampton last week because he wasn't qualified for a handicap mark and was third. We might look at a Derby trial for him. If he cuts it at that level then brilliant, but if not we'll take stock and rebuild him, but we're very excited about him and he's been training really well. 02-04-25"
Fresh (324 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The second-highest rated horse in the field, but he hasn't raced in over ten months and all three of his career wins have come on wet or muddy ground — today's normal conditions are exactly the type he has never won on. That combination of a lengthy absence and a ground record that works against him makes this a difficult assignment.
He arrives here in the best form of any horse in the field — back-to-back wins at Haydock and Chester — which makes him impossible to ignore despite carrying one of the lower weights. The concern is that his record on normal ground reads zero wins from nine races, a striking blind spot that sits awkwardly against his recent hot streak.
Won at this course & distanceWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesLoves this ground (27% win rate)Won at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist in this race — two wins from five visits to Thirsk, including a win over this exact course and distance, which is a rare qualification in this field. He was beaten only a neck at Beverley three weeks ago, suggesting he is in decent enough shape, though his record on normal ground — zero wins from five races — is a genuine concern given today's conditions.
Course specialist (2 wins from 5 here)Has won over this course and distance
Wearing tongue strapWon 2 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (33% win rate)Won at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Rated joint second-highest in the field, but his last two runs were both eighth-place finishes — one of them here at Thirsk just a fortnight ago. He is at his best over slightly longer distances than today's mile, which is another reason to be cautious despite the solid rating.
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (226 days off)Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
She returns from roughly seven months off the track, which is a real risk in a competitive field like this. Her best form has come on fast, dry ground — winning three times from seven races in those conditions — but today's normal ground is a different test, and she has never won on it.
Won at this course & distanceWearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 45 races compared to a field average of around 20 — and he has won over this course and distance before. However, he has never won on normal ground in six attempts, and a sixteenth-place finish at Doncaster last month is difficult to explain away.
Has won over this course and distanceMost experienced (45 runs, field avg 20)
Won 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
He carries the lowest weight in the field by some margin — ten pounds below the field average — which in theory gives him a physical advantage over his rivals. In practice, he is also the lowest-rated horse here and has won just 1 in every 10 races across his career, so the weight allowance may simply reflect what the handicapper thinks of his chances.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
Wearing hoodWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Six career wins is one of the better tallies in this field, and his record on normal ground is genuinely strong — four wins from ten races in these conditions. That said, he finished eleventh here at Thirsk just four weeks ago and has run poorly in his last three races, so the form coming into today does not back up the career record.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
Won 1 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
One of only a handful of horses in this field with a win at Thirsk, which is always worth noting. The problem is that he used that course form just four weeks ago and finished thirteenth — so familiarity with the track clearly isn't enough on its own right now.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.