Southwell

Won at Nottingham just 19 days ago, so arrives here in good recent form — but this is only her second race on normal ground conditions and she has never raced on this type of surface before. With just two career races to her name, she is still a largely unknown quantity, and her odds drifting sharply from the morning price suggests the market has cooled on her chances. She is one of the form picks in the race, but questions remain about how she will handle this new surface.

The only horse in this field who has won at exactly this distance, which counts for something — but she has not raced for 319 days, the longest absence of any runner here, and she has only ever run once in her life. A perfect record of one win from one race is eye-catching, but almost nothing is known about her, and a near-year off the track is a significant question mark for any horse.

Two races in and still looking for a first win, finishing fourth and fifth — she has not yet shown she can compete at the sharp end. The positive angle is that her jockey Paddy Bradley and trainer Charlie Fellowes are both in decent recent form, winning regularly over the last two weeks. But with no wins from two attempts and rivals boasting more relevant form, she faces a tough ask to turn things around here.

Making her racecourse debut, so there is genuinely no form to assess — everything is unknown. Her father Pinatubo was a brilliant two-year-old who won all six of his races as a juvenile, which gives her some pedigree interest. Trainer Bryan Smart has been in solid form lately, winning 2 from 6 in the last two weeks, but first-time runners are always a leap of faith.