Market favourite at 4.9 but only one win from 19 races is a brutal indictment—5% win rate, worst in the field among favoured runners. Zero wins on good ground from six attempts, and this distance (1 mile) sits outside his sweet spot, making his odds a serious trap.
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 4 times
TrackLab Insight
Best record at this distance (4 wins from 10 races) and the only horse with a genuine win rate of roughly 1 in 6, which towers above most rivals. Recent form is poor, but his 36% win rate on standard ground (the conditions here) and course expertise make him the only runner with an upward trajectory the data can support—exactly what the editorial case identifies.
Best record at this trip (4 from 10)Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Wearing blinkersFresh (316 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Returning after a staggering 316-day absence with no wins from 3 career races and finishes of 12th, 15th, and 11th. This is the kind of comeback that rarely works, and odds of 15.5 are generous—far too risky to back.
Lightly raced (3 career races)Absent 316 days (longest in field)
Fresh (76 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes mark him as competitive, but he's been off the track for 76 days and carries a poor record on all ground types. Struggles on left-handed galloping tracks (Navan is one), and his last run was well-beaten—this comeback is a gamble at 13.0 odds.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Only one win from 14 races, but it came just 62 days ago at Bellewstown and he's managed three straight top-3 finishes. Has the best record on good ground in this particular race conditions (1 from 8), and draw in stall 3 avoids the high numbers where form has been weakest.
Best record on this ground (1 from 8)3 straight top-3 finishes
Only 5 career races means data is sparse, but she's winless and showing declining form (11th most recently). Youngest runner in the field at 3 years old and still very much in the learning phase—too green for a 20-runner handicap this competitive.
More experienced than most, but that experience has yielded just one win from 20 races—a 5% win rate that ranks among the worst in the field. Hasn't raced in 39 days and struggles on right-handed galloping tracks like Navan, making this comeback trip a tough assignment.
Wearing tongue strapQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 12 races but has shown some sparkle in recent weeks with two placed finishes in the last three outings. Still carries a zero next to her name and lacks the proven form to justify confidence here, though the upward trend is real.
R. Whearty
·
C. David Maxwell
· 3yo
· 8st 10lb
· OR 45
Form
4.2
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Five races, zero wins, zero places—a genuinely struggling 3-year-old with recent efforts of 13th, 9th, 10th, 6th, and 13th. Hasn't won or placed once, and the 39-day absence before his last race suggests he's been given time to find his feet without success.
Top-rated in the field but form has collapsed—9th and 13th in her last two outings, beaten nearly 15 lengths most recently. The critical problem: she has zero wins from three attempts on good ground, which is exactly what she faces here, making her drift to 21.0 odds entirely justified despite her rating advantage.
Wearing tongue strapQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced in the field at 81 races, but that mileage hasn't bought consistency—6 wins from 81 starts (7%) and a recent bad fall at Bellewstown leave her as a question mark. Yet to win at Navan in 10 attempts, which is a damning specific statistic for this race.
S. Rutledge
·
J. C McConnell
· 8yo
· 9st 3lb
· OR 47
HeadgearFreshness
2.2
Wearing tongue strapFresh (62 days off)Won 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
One of the more successful in the field with 4 wins from 46 races, but hasn't raced for 62 days and shows a 50% win rate on heavy/slow ground—nothing to suggest he'll flourish on the standard conditions here. Long absence is a real concern.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Winless from just 3 races with no placed finishes; the most basic data shows a horse still learning his trade. Recent efforts of 4th, 8th, and 12th show some promise, but he's far too inexperienced for a field this large and this competitive.
Winless from 4 races with a jockey-trainer pairing meeting for the first time. Recent form (13th at Cork) is weak, and there's nothing in the data to suggest this green 3-year-old can break through in a 20-runner race against established competitors.
Only 3 career races and just suffered a fall at Bellewstown 8 days ago—too lightly raced and too recently unseated to consider. Odds of 23.0 reflect genuine doubt, and the data gives no reason to argue with the market here.
J. Cleary(5)
·
K. Thornton
· 3yo
· 9st 5lb
· OR 54
Form
0.6
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
One win from 15 races (7%) and placed in 2 of last 3, suggesting recent form is trending upward. Good record on standard ground (1 from 8) and 12% win rate at 1m3f-1m4f shows he's suited by distance extension—but this 1-mile trip may come too short.
Carries the lightest weight in the field but has only 2 placed finishes from 13 races—winless across her entire career. The form is thin and the results are thin; low weight doesn't compensate for a complete absence of winning form.
Wearing tongue strapQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 11 races but has placed four times and ran here just 6 days ago (10th, beaten 7.2 lengths). Quick turnaround suggests the trainer has confidence, and recent form shows two 6th-place finishes at Cork and Sligo—but no wins yet to justify serious backing.
One of the more successful runners with 4 wins from 46 races, but recent form is dire (9th, 13th, 14th across her last three) and she's been off for 40 days. Most critically, she has zero wins on yielding or good-to-yielding ground, limiting her options depending on exact conditions on race day.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Quick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated horse in the field 10 pounds below average, with just one win from 29 races (3% win rate)—among the worst. Zero wins on standard or good ground, struggles on left-handed galloping tracks, and hasn't won at Navan in 5 attempts: multiple red flags.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.