Lingfield
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Polytrack surface
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict singles this horse out as the one to take a chance on, and the key number behind that is his record on today's normal artificial-track surface — 2 wins from 7 races at 29%, comfortably the best ground-specific record in this field for these conditions. He's been off for nearly six months, which is a genuine risk, but his last completed run at Lingfield and two thirds beforehand show he arrives in reasonable shape form-wise. If the trainer has him fit enough to fire first time back, the conditions are in his favour.
Best record on this ground (2 from 7)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite despite never having won a race in 13 attempts — punters are clearly convinced a first win is coming, and it's hard to blame them given he's finished second three times and third twice. He was beaten less than two lengths at Wolverhampton just 20 days ago, so he arrives fit and in form, and he draws the lowest-numbered stall which carries a slight statistical edge at this course and distance. The big question is whether he can finally convert — talented but frustrating is the honest verdict.
Market favourite (3.1)
TrackLab Insight
This is the standout course specialist in the race — five wins from 13 races at Lingfield is a remarkable record, winning more than one in every three times he's turned up here. That makes him almost uniquely qualified for this contest compared to most of his rivals, and he's the only horse in the field with anything close to that level of course form. He was only beaten 2.5 lengths here five weeks ago, so the recent Kempton flop aside, the signs point to this track bringing out the best in him.
Course specialist (5 wins from 13 here)
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by 12 pounds below average, which is a significant gap to make up against more fancied rivals. He carries the lightest weight as a result, which is the small silver lining, but ten races without a win and a fifth and eighth in his last two appearances here at Lingfield don't inspire confidence. Still looking for his first win and this looks like a tough spot to find it.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
TrackLab Insight
The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 4 or 5 races — and a record of 2 wins from just 3 attempts at today's distance of a mile and a half makes this horse look well suited on paper. The concern is straightforward: he hasn't raced in over six months, and returning from a long break without a prep run is always a risk, especially in a competitive field. If he's anywhere near his best, he's one of the more interesting runners here.
Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
TrackLab Insight
Forty-two races into his career and he has never won at Lingfield in 16 attempts — that is the most glaring stat here, and it makes today's task look steep regardless of anything else. His recent form includes a distant sixth over a longer trip at Windsor, and he's been off for over five months since. Three wins from 42 races and no joy at this track is a hard case to argue.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by some distance — this horse hasn't raced in over 300 days, and his form before that break included a pulled-up run at Lingfield and a distant ninth at Kempton. Just one win from 17 career races tells you this isn't a horse that wins regularly even when fully fit, so the question mark over his current condition makes this a very difficult one to support. Honest assessment: there's very little in the data to suggest he can be competitive here.
Absent 309 days (longest in field)
TrackLab Insight
The market has pushed this horse out to a big price despite him carrying one of the higher official ratings in the field — that gap between his rating and his odds is the most interesting thing about him today. The brutal truth is he's never won on the normal artificial-track conditions he'll face here, going 0 from 6 on this type of surface. The jockey-trainer partnership has yet to produce a winner together in 14 attempts, which doesn't help the cause.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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