T. Kiely-Marshall(5)
·
J. Evans
· 6yo
· 9st 4lb
· OR 50
C&DHeadgear
15
Good Value
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Won here 3 timesHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The most compelling case in the race: Mintana has won 3 times from just 4 visits to Lingfield, making it the standout course specialist in the field by a clear margin. It also carries the best overall win rate of any horse here — winning roughly 1 in every 6 races — and today's normal surface conditions are where it has done its best work. The only pause for thought is a 4th-place finish last time out and a low draw (2) in a race where low draws don't hold a strong advantage at this distance.
Course specialist (3 wins from 4 here)Best record on this ground (4 from 20)Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Won at this course & distanceWearing blinkersFresh (64 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won here 4 times
TrackLab Insight
The standout course record here is the headline: Harry Brown has won 4 times from 19 races at Lingfield, making it one of the most proven course performers in this field. That translates to roughly 1 win in every 5 trips here — well above its overall career average of 1 in 9. The concern is a 64-day absence and recent form that hasn't been convincing, but if this horse is going to win anywhere, it's here.
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesFresh (64 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won here 5 times
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 101 races compared to a field average of 44 — and crucially, Porfin has won 5 times from 22 visits to Lingfield, giving it one of the stronger course records here. The worry is a zero from 10 record on standard-to-slow ground and a recent run that ended 10th at Wolverhampton, but a low draw (4) helps and this horse simply knows this track.
Won at this course & distanceWearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Two wins from 46 races — roughly 1 in every 23 outings — and a record of zero wins from 15 races on left-handed galloping tracks makes this a very tough sell at Lingfield today. The recent form also took a sharp turn for the worse last time out, going from back-to-back thirds at Brighton to a 10th-place finish here 36 days ago. It's hard to find the angle.
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 6.5, which is a little puzzling given a record of one win from 22 races and zero wins from 5 races on the normal surface conditions used here today. The jockey-trainer combination is also winless in six attempts together. On paper, there are several horses in this field with stronger claims — the market position is the main thing keeping it in the conversation.
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
One win from 23 races and a record of zero wins from 8 races on the normal surface conditions used at Lingfield today make this a difficult case to argue for. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to click in six attempts together, adding another question mark. There's a hint of market confidence at 7.5, but the data doesn't obviously justify it.
Won at this course & distanceWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The editorial tip of the race, and the reasoning is sound: this horse finished 5th last time out over 5f — a trip shorter than it really wants — and is now stepping up to 6f where it should be better suited. Eight career wins from 63 races shows a horse that knows how to get the job done, and recent form, while patchy, included a close-up finish. The record at Lingfield on this surface is less clear-cut than some rivals, but the step up in distance is a genuine positive today.
One of the more successful in the field (8 career wins)
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
One win from 19 races tells you this horse makes punters wait, and the dramatic drift in the market — from an opening price of 1.1 out to 9.0 — suggests nobody is rushing to back it today. It handles normal conditions on this type of surface reasonably well, but its best form has come over slightly longer distances than today's 6f. Hard to get excited about.
Won 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field, 4lbs below the average, and a career record of just one win from 48 races — roughly 1 in every 48 outings — makes this a very hard horse to recommend. Recent form has been a string of fourths and fifths, consistently close enough to suggest effort without ever delivering the result. The lighter weight and consistent finishing positions are the only positives, but consistent fourth place finishes don't pay out.
Won 2 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
Lion Ring's best form has come at Chelmsford, where it has won 4 from 16 — but today's race is at Lingfield, a different track entirely, and it has a poor record on the normal surface conditions used here. It does have the freshest legs in the field, racing just 10 days ago, which could work for or against it. The course form simply doesn't transfer, which makes this a harder case to make than the career record might suggest.
One of the more successful in the field (7 career wins)
Daley T carries the lightest weight in the field, which is a genuine advantage in a race like this — the less weight a horse carries, the less it has to work against. The problem is a blank win record across 22 career races, though a close third at Newcastle 70 days ago shows this horse is capable of finishing right in the mix. The well-established jockey-trainer partnership — 88 wins together from 675 races — is at least a steadying factor.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.