Haydock
·
Aesterius At Bearstone Stud Handicap Stakes
Starts in
Awaiting result
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite and the only horse in the field with a proven Haydock win, but it's a fatal problem: zero wins from seven attempts on soft ground across his career. Despite the good-to-soft form, the favourite cannot handle genuinely wet conditions—and Haydock today is wet, not merely soft.
Has won over this course and distance
Market favourite (4.33)
Compare Odds
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
A lightly-raced 3-year-old filly who has never been on wet ground and carries low weight, but form is mixed: a nose-second at Yarmouth 21 days ago raises hope, yet she has won just once from eight races total. The unknown of soft ground and minimal experience make her speculative despite the market backing (7.0).
Never raced on wet ground
Compare Odds
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The second-highest rated horse but trailing form is hard to ignore—11th at York just 16 days ago after a 5th at Musselburgh. At just three years old with only 16 races under his belt, this Michael Dods runner lacks the experience to handle a wet Haydock sprint, and the downward blip is timing-dependent.
2nd highest rated (OR 81)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on wet ground in 28 career races—a glaring absence when conditions demand adaptation. The 5-year-old's only wins came on good-to-firm ground, and his recent form (7th at Beverley, 5th at Thirsk, 13th at York) shows zero momentum going into unknown territory.
Never raced on wet ground
Trainer Quotes
Aug 2025
"We paid a few quid for him and I like him. It's been a bit trial and error - he ran really well over 6f first time but he's since won well over 5f at Thirsk and ran another great race over that course and distance last week. If the winner had attacked nearer him, I think we'd have beaten him. He'll benefit from another winter on his back - when he strengthens and matures, he'll be a lot better than his handicap mark. 14-08-25"
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner with 67 races and the best soft-ground record in the field (three wins from 16 starts), making him ideally suited to wet Haydock. However, recent form is worrying—8th at Hamilton 14 days ago, 10th at Ayr 60 days ago—and the 7-year-old needs a return to form, not just favourable conditions.
Best record on this ground (3 from 16)
Most experienced (67 runs, field avg 31)
Trainer Quotes
Sep 2025
"His run at Haydock last week will sharpen him up for Ayr. Last year he ran in the 5f race on the Thursday and then just got pipped in the Bronze Cup the following day. It'll be the same path and we'll see if he can go one better. 10-09-25"
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
Flying high with three top-3 finishes in his last four races, including a nose-second at Sandown just six days ago, and runs again after minimal rest. The nine-year-old has a genuine soft-ground record (one win from three starts on standard-to-slow ground), but poor form on good-to-soft and good-to-firm suggests he needs true soft or heavy to shine.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Runs again after just 6 days
Compare Odds
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Steps up two classes and carries the same rating as Spoof, but his form is deteriorating sharply: 15th at York 16 days ago after a 7th at Ripon. This three-year-old has won just once from 16 races and struggles on left-handed galloping tracks—Haydock is exactly that—making him a significant outsider despite the class step-up.
Steps up 2 classes
Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The standout record-holder with a 1-in-5 win rate, and he won at Thirsk just 21 days ago to prove he's sharp. However, his excellent 40% win rate on good ground disappears completely on softer surfaces—no data on heavy or soft—making this wet Haydock a step into the unknown for a horse built for faster ground.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated runner, absent 147 days (longest absence in the field), but carries a soft-ground profile worth examining: the data hints at affinity for wet conditions, and his trainer has clearly timed the return for these exact conditions. However, the five-month layoff and poor recent form (8th at Thirsk pre-absence) make this a gamble on potential rather than evidence.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Absent 147 days (longest in field)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
Just beaten a nose at Newcastle but carries a crippling weakness: zero wins from six attempts on wet ground—exactly what Haydock is serving today. This 6-year-old wins 40% of the time on good-to-soft ground but has never landed a blow when the turf gets properly soft, making conditions the decisive factor here.
Among the fancied runners (10.0)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
A genuine course specialist at Haydock with three wins from 16 runs here, but the data screams a red flag: zero wins on good-to-soft or good-to-firm ground in 10 attempts combined. Wet ground at Haydock is uncharted territory for this 6-year-old, and her recent fourth at Catterick offers no confidence.
Has won over this course and distance
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
An 11-year-old still winning races, and crucially holds an elite wet-ground record: two wins from four attempts on heavy ground at a 50% win rate—unmatched in this field. However, the 87-day absence is the elephant in the room; a long layoff at his age, racing at unfamiliar odds (23.0), makes the comeback timing highly suspect.
Among the more experienced (32 career races)
Compare Odds
Your pick
—
—
What you'd get back
—
Odds
—
Bet type
Win (they finish 1st)
How much do you want to bet?
Your bet
£5
Your profit if they win
—
Total back in your pocket
—
How do odds work?
The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
Paid out by the bookmaker, not TrackLab.
Choose your bookmaker