American Bay

The short sprint trip seems to unlock the best of him too. Over five to six-and-a-half furlongs, American Bay has won both his races from 15 attempts — a 13% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 8 races at those distances. Midgley has described the process as "trial and error," noting that while the horse ran well over six furlongs early on, he has since won well over five furlongs at Thirsk and produced another strong effort there just last week. That kind of course-and-distance confidence at Thirsk is worth paying attention to.

What makes the profile genuinely interesting is the gap between where American Bay currently competes and where Midgley believes he is heading. Most of his races have come at Class 4 level — solid, competitive racing — but the trainer is convinced the horse's official rating does not reflect his real ability yet. "When he strengthens and matures, he'll be a lot better than his handicap mark," Midgley said, and with another winter to fill out physically, there is a real sense that this is a horse still being shaped rather than one already fully formed. He raced just yesterday and remains in active campaign, so the team clearly believes there is more to come this season.

The regular jockey David Nolan has yet to get a win from their five rides together, though that may say more about timing and conditions than any real incompatibility. American Bay is the kind of horse that needs everything to line up — fast ground, the right trip, the right track — but when it does, the Midgley yard clearly fancies their chances. A horse that wins 1 in 3 on the ground it loves, trained by a yard that has already sent out 39 winners this season, is well worth keeping an eye on.