Hamilton

The race favourite and the most compelling case in the field: he's the only horse here who has won over this exact course and distance, and he beat today's main rival Fast Fred by a clear margin at Musselburgh three weeks ago. His record on normal ground is a worry — no wins from three previous attempts on these conditions — but he arrives in the best form of his career and the market agrees he's the one to beat. Jockey Lauren Young claims a 3lb allowance, which helps offset the weight.

He has the best win rate in the field — winning 1 in every 4 races — but the last run was a pulled-up at Ayr, which means he didn't finish the race at all, and that's a red flag that can't be ignored. Crucially, he has never raced on normal ground conditions before, so today is an unknown test in that regard. His odds have shortened sharply from 8s to 6s, suggesting someone fancies him despite the question marks.

She carries the lowest weight in the field — 18 pounds less than the top weight — which is a significant advantage in a handicap race and shouldn't be underestimated. She also won at Musselburgh three weeks ago, and her record on normal ground is genuinely strong with 2 wins from 6 races on this surface. The official rating puts her 10 points below the field average, so she starts with a built-in edge if that recent winning form is genuine.

Three defeats in a row by increasingly wide margins — 9.5, 6.5, and 5 lengths — make this hard to back with confidence right now. The data also suggests he's better suited to longer distances of around a mile and a half or more, and today's trip of a mile and three furlongs may be on the short side. The market has shortened him slightly, but the recent form doesn't justify much optimism.