Downpatrick

Four races in and yet to win or finish in the top three — the least experienced in the field alongside Auntie Ida, and the record so far is uninspiring. She finished 14th and 11th in back-to-back runs before a more respectable sixth last time out, which is at least a step in the right direction. Trainer Gavin Cromwell also saddles Doing It In Style today, and neither horse arrives with strong claims.

An 8-year-old who has had 28 races and won just twice, and whose recent form reads as a string of distant finishes — beaten 25 lengths, 30 lengths — at this very course and elsewhere. The data on today's slightly soft ground is a worry: she has zero wins from multiple runs on similar conditions, with her best record coming on heavier or faster ground. The blinkers are on to sharpen her up, but there is little recent evidence to suggest a revival is coming.

Ten races without a win, and the jockey-trainer combination riding her today has not won together in 16 attempts. She does have four placed finishes to her name, which shows she is not completely out of her depth, but she pulled up last time at Fairyhouse before two runs where the result is not even recorded. There is not enough here to get excited about.

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 43 races compared to a field average of 12 — but that experience has brought only three wins, roughly 1 in every 14 races. Her record on today's slightly soft ground is a concern: zero wins from five tries on soft conditions, and she arrives here having been beaten over nine lengths last time out at Gowran Park. At 17.0, the market is not expecting much.

Just three career races to her name — one of the least experienced horses here — and the trajectory is heading in the wrong direction: a fourth on debut at Punchestown, then 10th, then 16th, beaten nearly 77 lengths last time out at Navan. She has never raced on slightly soft ground, and today is the first time this jockey and trainer have ever worked together, which adds another layer of uncertainty. Hard to make a case for her at this stage.

Carries the lowest weight in the field, which in a handicap race like this is meant to give a less-fancied horse a fighting chance — but eight races, zero wins and a sequence of eighth-place finishes make it hard to be optimistic. She is returning from over four months off, and her last two runs were both beaten by massive margins at Thurles. The jockey and trainer are working together for the first time today, which is rarely a sign of a stable confident in its chances.

The standout on paper: top-rated by 3lbs, the only horse in this field to have won at Downpatrick, and the only one to have won over this exact distance. The concern is obvious though — she pulled up in her last two races before that Downpatrick win, and her odds drifting wildly from near-evens to 19s suggests those in the know aren't confident. A fascinating puzzle: the form credentials are the best in the field, but recent runs raise real questions.

Seven races, zero wins, zero places — and her last three runs brought finishes of 11th, 9th and 11th, beaten by huge margins each time. She is returning from a four-month break and is a 34-to-1 shot for good reason: there is very little in the data to suggest a turnaround is coming. The hood she wears is designed to keep her focused, but the evidence says this is likely to be another tough afternoon.

The longest absence in the field — a full year since her last run, which ended in a pull-up at this very course. She has never won or placed in seven career races, and the 51-to-1 price says everything about what the market thinks of her chances on return. Unless the year off has transformed her, this looks like a very difficult assignment.