Lagoon Nebula

The Cheltenham win came over a long distance — two miles or more — and that's where Lagoon Nebula has consistently looked most at home. Over those trips it has won 1 from 8 races, a 12% win rate, which sounds modest until you consider that single win was a Class 1. There's something to work with there. The horse has also placed five times across its 18 races, suggesting it is competitive more often than the win column alone implies.

Jockey Sean O'Keeffe has been the regular partner, and together they've built a record of 1 win from 5 races — that's 20%, or roughly 1 in 5, which is a strong ratio in jump racing at any level. Kinirons' yard has been in reasonable form this season, sending out 5 winners. Recent runs have been quiet — the last six include a couple of mid-field finishes and some that didn't finish in the frame — and it's worth noting that the Cheltenham win was now 13 months ago. But Lagoon Nebula raced just yesterday, so whatever comes next is close.

A horse that has won once at the top level of the sport but spends most of its time finishing fifth or eighth is a puzzle. Either that Cheltenham win was the ceiling, or it's a horse still figuring out how to replicate a performance it has already proved it is capable of. Given the age — just five — and that the first big win came relatively recently, the answer probably isn't settled yet.