Feared most by the race editor, and the recent form backs that up — three consecutive top-three finishes including back-to-back wins at Wolverhampton make this horse the most in-form runner outside of the favourite. The concern is that all his best work has come on the artificial all-weather surface, and he has never won on normal ground in four attempts on turf.
Fourteen races in and still searching for a first win, Vault Of Heaven is one of two winless horses in this field. A third-place finish at Wolverhampton 17 days ago is at least a recent sign of life, but this horse and jockey Hollie Doyle have yet to win together in 12 attempts, and the high draw of stall 14 does not help at Bath.
Wearing hoodWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
An outsider at 19.0 with just one win from 25 races, Port Hedland has also never won on a left-handed galloping track in 11 attempts — Bath fits that description exactly. His last three runs have all been seventh-place finishes, which tells a consistent but uninspiring story.
Won at this course & distanceWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The race favourite and the editorial pick on top of the list — Southbank won this exact race last year and was a solid second at Lingfield just three weeks ago, making him the most in-form horse at the head of the market. He wins roughly 1 in every 6 races and has the best win rate in the field, though it's worth noting he has never won on today's normal ground conditions in four attempts. A draw in stall 6 also puts him in the middle, which is not the prime low-draw territory that Bath's 6f track tends to favour.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)Market favourite (4.5)
Trainer Quotes
Dec 2025
"He's been great for us on the Flat this season, winning on turf at Bath and then at Kempton on the all-weather last month. Richard Venn found him for me at the sales. We were looking for an entertainment horse for Kate Digweed and her parents. He bought us a good, tough and consistent horse. He'll carry on running on the all-weather during the winter and fingers crossed we can pick up another race at some point. 01-12-25"
Second in the betting at 6.2, Tomarlo is an interesting puzzle — just one win from 22 races gives him one of the lowest win rates among the fancied horses, yet the market clearly sees something here. He has never won on normal ground in six attempts, which is a concern given today's conditions, though he was only beaten 2.2 lengths in fourth last time out at Wolverhampton.
Fresh (63 days off)Won 0 of last 5Loves this ground (29% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Eight career wins from 63 races is one of the better CVs in this field, and today's normal ground is where she has shown some of her best form — two wins from seven races on similar conditions. Her last six runs show nothing better than fifth, however, and Bath is a galloping track, a type she has never won on in five attempts.
One of the more successful in the field (8 career wins)
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
A second-place finish at Lingfield just three weeks ago gives Big Time Rascal a reasonable case for a place at least, and today's normal ground is worth noting — he won on good ground in one of five such attempts. He wins roughly 1 in every 23 races though, which makes him a tough one to back outright, and he has never won on normal conditions specifically.
Five races into her career and still without a win, Zambezi Diamond is the least experienced horse in this field — most rivals have raced three to five times as often. Her odds drifted sharply before this race, which is rarely a good sign, and her form figures of 4-12-4-8-8 suggest a horse that has never seriously threatened to get involved.
Won at this course & distanceWearing visorWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
One of only a small number of course winners in this field, Secret Handsheikh has at least visited the Bath winner's enclosure before — but that positive is heavily undermined by a critical stat: he has never won on normal ground conditions in 15 attempts, and today's track is exactly that. He also draws stall 13, which is high ground at Bath and one of the worst places to be at this trip.
Won at this course & distanceFresh (87 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The standout stat here is that Spirited Dancer's only career win came right here at Bath over this exact 6f trip — making her one of the very few course-and-distance winners in the field. The problem is that was back in May 2024, and her last six runs have produced nothing better than a fifth place, with a run of 7-7-10 most recently.
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 3 timesWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in this field by a long way — 82 races compared to the field average of 33 — and crucially, Bath is a track she knows well with three wins from 26 visits here. The worry is that she carries the lowest weight in the field, often a sign the handicapper rates her below her rivals, and she has never won on normal ground in eight attempts.
Carries lowest weight in fieldMost experienced (82 runs, field avg 33)
Won at this course & distanceWearing visorWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Like Spirited Dancer, Little Miss Magic has a course win at Bath on her record — and that single career victory came right here, which puts her in a small and valuable club in this field. The problem is her form since has been poor, finishing 6th last time out, and at odds of 29.0 the market is not convinced a repeat is coming.
The longest absence in the field by some distance — Haworth Star has not raced for 172 days, which is nearly six months off. Coming back from a break that long into a competitive sprint is a big ask, and his last run before the break was an 11th-place finish. His one career win came over a year ago and he has never won on normal ground.
Every single one of Washington Heir's five career races has come on artificial all-weather surfaces — he has never raced on normal turf conditions before today. That is a genuine unknown, and combined with zero wins from five races and a poor recent run of 9th last time out, there is little in the data to suggest a breakthrough is likely here.
Wearing blinkersQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field, rated 4lbs below the average, and his last six runs read 7-7-11-9-7-5 — a string of poor performances with no obvious reason for optimism. His strengths are firmly at Lingfield Park, where he wins roughly 1 in every 3 races, but Bath is a very different track and he has won only twice from 67 races away from his favoured venues.
Lowest rated, 3lbs below averageBest record on this ground (1 from 3)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.