Ballinrobe

The most interesting horse in this field on paper — only one race to its name, but that debut third at Gowran Park came in the same race where today's favourite Mano Chicago finished second, so it's already been tested against a live rival here. The editorial verdict marks it out as the one to beat, and at 3.55 it has drifted sharply from what looked like a very short opening price. One catch: it has never raced on wet ground before, and today's conditions are soft — that's an unknown for a horse with so little experience.

A horse of two halves — a near-miss second place at Navan suggests there's ability there, but that run was followed by a 18th-place finish at the Curragh, beaten over 40 lengths. Never raced on soft, wet ground before, and the jockey-trainer combination wins roughly 1 in 12 races together, which isn't inspiring. Hard to trust at this point.

One race, one fourth place, then 546 days of silence — that's the longest absence of any horse in this field, and returning after 16 months away is a significant hurdle for any horse. The trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien is in solid form with 6 wins from 34 races in the last two weeks, and the jockey has been riding well, but there's simply too little to go on here. This is very much a watch-and-learn run.

Six races in, no wins, but three places — and crucially, a second place at Dundalk just 42 days ago suggests this horse is in decent fettle. It ran in the same race as Cracking Cloud and Mano Chicago at Gowran Park 29 days ago and finished fifth, which puts it a step behind today's two market leaders on recent form. Its standout marker is simply a mid-range position in the market — there's nothing here that screams danger to the favourites.