Windsor

Rated just 1 pound behind Toralou by the editorial verdict (74 to 73) and boasts a 33% win rate on good-to-firm ground (1 from 3), which is excellent for today's dry conditions. The draw in stall 1 is not ideal given the track bias, and recent form is patchy with two ninth-place finishes, but she won a Class 2 race at Salisbury less than a year ago — pedigree enough to respect.

Just broke her duck with a win at Brighton 27 days ago, but a sixth at Chepstow 19 days later suggests that victory may have been opportunistic rather than a turning point. Lowest rated in the field at 62 (5 pounds below average) and carrying the least weight, she would need conditions to be perfect — but a 0% win rate on standard ground combined with being below the class threshold makes her an outlier.

The editorial selection with form trending in the right direction: a close second at Ffos Las just 53 days ago shows she is competitive, and her 25% win rate on good ground (1 from 4) is the joint-best in the field for today's conditions. The major concern is she has never won on standard ground in her career, and Windsor's turf sits in that middle zone — a critical weakness that partly explains why the odds favour her despite the selection.

A 3-year-old with no wins from 6 races and a significant unknown factor: she has never run on dry ground before, making today genuinely unpredictable. The recent fourth at Goodwood and third at Kempton show some capability, but she is winless and unproven on this surface — too much uncertainty for a race with proven alternatives.