Tramore

The second-favorite despite holding just one win from 14 races and coming off a narrow-margin defeat (beaten 0.2L at Gowran Park eight days ago) suggests the market believes there's something lurking here. She ticks the box for this trip (33% win rate over 1m6f–2m) and coped with Tramore's demands reasonably well four weeks ago (fourth, beaten 14.5L), but her draw in the high numbers is a significant headwind—only zero win rate recorded from that part of the track.

The horse with the best career win rate in the field at 17% (four wins from 24 races) and proven at this trip (29% over 1m6f–2m), but he hasn't raced in 185 days—the longest absence in the field—and his last three runs came at Dundalk, a completely different surface and layout. On standard ground he's excellent (27% win rate from 11 starts) and his jockey-trainer combo works (15 wins from 145 together), but the comeback factor after nearly six months out is a real question mark.

Data is thin—just 24 career races with one win now sitting 11 months in the past—and she comes back after a 25-day absence off the back of a second-place finish at Ballinrobe. She suits this distance (11% win rate over 2m+) and the ground conditions (9% on good), but the long lay-off and the fact that she hasn't won since August 2025 suggests she's struggled to recapture that early form.

The only course winner in the field—she has won three of her eight races at Tramore (38% win rate)—and she won here just 39 days ago, which is the freshest course form on offer. She also suits this ground perfectly (19% win rate on good, 20% on good-to-yielding) and runs again after just seven days, so there's genuine form logic here, though she's carrying 138lbs and running back quickly.