Salisbury

Supplicate is firing right now — she's won three races on the bounce, most recently at Nottingham just 14 days ago, and her 75% win rate is the best of any horse in this field. However, she's stepping up in class and distance (to 1m 2f) after victories at lower levels, and there's no evidence yet that she can maintain this momentum against stronger opposition. The short turnaround and the jump in difficulty make this a significant ask.

Storm Point carries the lowest weight in the field and boasts the best win rate here at 29% — two wins from seven races — but he's badly out of form after a 35-day break and a 7th-place finish at Newbury. His record on standard ground is also a concern: zero wins from three attempts. The long layoff and recent poor run suggest he may need this outing more than he needs to be winning it.

Akho Mezzna is the editorial selection and one of the few course winners here, but he also carries a significant red flag: zero wins from four starts on good-to-firm ground. His recent form is mixed — beaten 11 lengths at Ascot 19 days ago before two placed efforts on faster ground at Sandown — and stepping back to this ground type after a poor run raises questions about whether the ground plays against him or if he's genuinely off form. The progressive profile the experts mention is not yet visible in his numbers.

Sudbury Hill won here just 19 days ago and is the only course winner in the field, but there's a major problem: he has zero wins from four attempts on good-to-firm ground, which is exactly what today's conditions deliver. That losing record on this going type makes him a risky proposition despite the recent victory and his habit of finishing in the top three — form is only useful if the ground doesn't work against him.