Salisbury

Only horse in the field with two racecourse runs, showing mild improvement: third last time out, fifth before that. She's unproven as a winner and still learning, but the Balding-Murphy partnership (226 wins together) and consistent top-three finishes suggest she's a step ahead of debuts and wildcard runners here.

Fourth on debut yesterday — a fairly neutral starting point that tells you little at this stage. The jockey-trainer combo has no record together (0 wins from 8 races), which is a concern, and the draw in stall 2 offers no real advantage despite being on the low end.

Finished eighth on debut fourteen days ago, comfortably beaten, and is the clear weakest previous runner in the field. The stall 1 draw is the best available, but it cannot make up for a disappointing first effort and an unproven trainer-jockey pairing.

Complete unknown on her first racecourse appearance, so you're betting blind on potential and pedigree alone. Andrew Balding's yard is firing (202 winners this season), which counts for something, but the draw in stall 3 offers a modest 17% advantage at this course and distance — not enough to overcome the lack of racing experience.