Ripon

The market favourite and the youngest horse in the field at just four years old, coming off three consecutive top-three finishes including a win at Southwell 40 days ago. The catch is that all three of those runs came at Southwell — this is a very different course, and today is the first time this horse races at Ripon. The jockey is also riding for this trainer for the first time, so there are unknowns to factor in.

The lowest-rated horse in the field and carrying the least weight, but also the best career win rate of any runner here — winning 1 in every 5 races is a record that outstrips most of its rivals. A third at Ripon just 22 days ago shows this course is no stranger to it, and the longer trip suits, with a remarkable 67% win rate over distances like today's. The catch is that this horse has never won on normal ground conditions, which is exactly what it faces today.

Won here at Ripon 15 days ago and has the best record in the field on today's normal conditions, winning 2 from 9 races on this type of ground. The distance suits too — this horse wins at a noticeably higher rate when stepping up to longer trips. The big question mark is the dramatic drift in the market, from near-certainty to 8/1, which suggests something has given punters pause.

This horse has winning form at longer distances and has placed well in the past, but recent form has been patchy — a third at Southwell is sandwiched between two poor efforts at Lingfield and Southwell before that. The jockey and trainer have a strong working record together, winning roughly 1 in 8 of their 221 races as a team, which is one of the more established partnerships in this field. Drawn widest of all in stall 7, which at this course and distance carries the lowest win rate in the field.