Punchestown

Nine years old and still without a win from 18 races — that is the longest winless run of any horse in this field. To his credit, he finished a close second just 25 days ago at Bellewstown, so he arrives in decent nick. The problem is he has been close before and never quite got his head in front.

Four races and four finishes in the bottom half of the field — 7th, 9th, 10th and 7th — with no wins and no places to show for it. He has also never raced on normal ground, so today is another new experience in a career that has yet to produce anything encouraging. Hard to see a case for him at this stage.

No wins and no places from six races, including a pulled up and a 14th-place finish in her last two completed runs — the form is poor. The one bright spot is that her jockey Darragh O'Keeffe has won 4 from his last 10 rides and is clearly in form, and trainer Henry De Bromhead is ticking over too. The horse's own record makes it hard to get excited, but the booking of an in-form jockey is worth noting.

The only horse in this field who has won over this exact course and distance — he won at Punchestown over 3 miles, and that is a fact none of his 20 rivals can match. At 12 years old he is the second-oldest horse in the race, and his recent form has been modest, but course-and-distance winners deserve respect even at long odds. He ran here just 11 days ago, so fitness is not a concern.

Pulled up in two of her last three races, and her odds have drifted dramatically from what appeared a near-certainty to 17s — a sign the market has seen enough. With 13 races and just one win, she is one of the more experienced horses here but has little to show for it. The form figures make grim reading at this point in her career.

The best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 7 races, and her record on normal ground stands out — two wins from eight outings on this surface, better than almost anyone else here. At 10 years old she is no youngster, and the jockey and trainer partnership is untested, but the ground form is a genuine positive. Worth keeping an eye on at 23s.

Six races, no wins, and the jockey-trainer partnership has drawn a blank across 16 races together — those are not encouraging numbers. He has never raced on normal ground either, so today brings a fresh question he has not yet answered. A mid-division finisher at best based on what we know.

Won at Down Royal — one of Ireland's most competitive tracks — not long ago, giving her a legitimate claim to form that some others in this field cannot match. Her result 19 days ago at Kilbeggan is unknown, which makes her current condition hard to judge. Trained by Gordon Elliott, who wins roughly 1 in 24 races at the moment, so the yard is not firing at its best right now.

The longest absentee in the field by some distance — he has not raced in 331 days after falling at Kilbeggan, and before that fall he was beaten less than a length into second at Tipperary. Crucially, he has the best record in the field at this 3-mile trip, winning 1 from 4 races at this distance. If he is fit after nearly a year off, the trip suits him better than most here.

The second-most experienced horse in the field with 27 races, but a win rate of roughly 1 in 27 tells its own story. His last three race results are all unknown from the data, making it almost impossible to gauge where he is right now. At 41s, the market is not convinced either.

One of the more credentialed horses in the field with two wins and five places from 24 races, and he was winning and placed just before his last run which ended in a pull up at Fairyhouse six months ago. He is returning from a break and meets a new jockey for the first time today, which adds uncertainty. His record is better than most here, but he needs to prove he has come back right.

Four races, no wins, no places, and his last run here at Punchestown saw him beaten by over 119 lengths — the widest losing margin in his short record. At 67s in the market he is the outsider of outsiders, and there is nothing in the data to suggest that is unfair. This is a horse with plenty to prove at every level.

Thirteen races without a win — tied with Schiehallion for the longest winless record in the field — and her last four completed runs include three pulled ups among the question marks. Ninth on her most recent outing at Cork suggests little improvement. Hard to find a reason to be optimistic.

Rated 16 pounds below the field average and carrying the lightest weight in the race — she is the lowest-rated horse here by a clear margin. Eight races, no wins, no places on normal ground, and she has never raced on this surface before. The weight allowance gives her a physical advantage but the rating gap tells you why it exists.