Galaxy Wonder has the sharpest win rate in this field at roughly 1 win in 6 races, and loves this trip — winning 44% of the time at 1m1f-1m2f. The problem is stark: zero wins on good ground in six attempts, and today's dry Nottingham surface should worry his backers despite the recent drift from 1.04 to 4.2.
M. Jack Loughnane(3)
·
S. England
· 4yo
· 11st 1lb
· OR 66
HeadgearForm
19
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes give Yafaarr genuine momentum, and his 11-day turnaround suggests he's thriving. The concern is form-dependent: he's won once on good ground but has zero wins from six attempts on standard ground, which matches today's conditions.
Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 3.75 with solid recent form including two wins in his last six, Palazzo Persico has the best record at this distance (3 wins from 14 races). His weakness on standard ground is a real concern today, but he's the only horse with back-to-back recent wins to show for.
Best record at this trip (3 from 14)Market favourite (3.75)
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 2 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field with a proven Nottingham win (1 from 2), Poet's Dawn showed he's still sharp with a victory just 12 days ago at Ripon. At 11 years old he's durable but has drifted dramatically in the market — a sign punters are worried about his age and the fact that he's won just 9 times from 80 races.
M. James Hills(3)
·
C. Hills
· 4yo
· 11st 0lb
· OR 65
FreshnessForm
13
Fresh (91 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
This filly hasn't raced in 91 days — the longest absence in the field — and more troublingly has never won in 12 career starts despite five places. With zero wins from 12 races and 12.0 odds, she looks like the field's weakest link.
M. Taryn Cole(3)
·
C. Benton
· 7yo
· 10st 5lb
· OR 56
HeadgearForm
6.4
Wearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Lowest rated in the field by 7lbs and carrying the least weight, Showmedemoney was desperately unlucky at Windsor 31 days ago (beaten just 0.3L). He boasts the best dry-ground record here at 17% win rate and wins roughly 1 in 7 overall — a genuine value play at 9.0 if his recent narrow defeat proves he's competitive.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldBest record on this ground (1 from 6)
M. Jodie Wingrove(3)
·
D. Wingrove
· 7yo
· 10st 8lb
· OR 59
FreshnessForm
0.6
Quick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Hill Station drew the low-bias slot (draw 1) but his form is abysmal: 11th just nine days ago beaten 43.8 lengths, the worst performance in the field. At 9% win rate from 53 races he's durable, but this looks like a bridge too far.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.